Blood and Oil: Inside the Shah's Iran (Modern Library Paperbacks)

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A Must Read

The Shah's Iran; Before the Deluge

The Prince of Storytelling

An Aristocrats View of Life in the Imperial Iran

Apologist

Blood and Oil: Inside the Shah's Iran (Modern Library Paperbacks)
Manucher Farmanfarmaian
Manufacturer: Modern Library
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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All the Shah's Men: An American Coup and the Roots of Middle East Terror

Iran and the Rise of the Reza Shah: From Qajar Collapse to Pahlavi Power

A History of Modern Iran Since 1921: The Pahlavis and After

Daughter of Persia: A Woman's Journey from Her Father's Harem Through the Islamic Revolution

Blood & Oil: A Prince's Memoir of Iran, from the Shah to the Ayatollah

ASIN: 0375753087
Release Date: 1999-03-02

Amazon.com

Anyone who views Iran merely as a nation of Muslim fanatics should read this riveting exposition of its tortuous 20th-century history. Born in 1917 into an aristocratic Iranian family, Manucher Farmanfarmaian served his country in the treacherous world of petroleum production and distribution--the source, he believes, of the disastrous Western meddling that indirectly led to the 1979 fundamentalist revolution. Writing with his journalist daughter, Farmanfarmaian details Iran's labyrinthine internal politics and international relations with thoroughness enlivened by muscular prose, a sharp eye for character, and lots of good anecdotes.

Book Description

PEN/West Award Finalist

"        Told with energy, perception and great charm. . . . For anyone who wants     to . . . gain insight into the great cultural and political richness of Iran, past, present and future, this book is a marvelous introduction."
--Fred Halliday, Los Angeles Times

Iran was the first country in the Middle East to develop an oil industry, and oil has been central to its tumultuous twentieth-century history. A finalist for the PEN/West Award, Blood and Oil tells the epic inside story of the battle for Iranian oil. A prominent member of one of Iran's most powerful aristocratic families--so feared by Khomeini that the entire clan was blacklisted--Prince Manucher Farmanfarmaian was raised in a harem at the heart of Iran's imperial court. With wit and provocative detail, he describes the days when he served as the Shah's oil adviser and pioneered the partnership that resulted in OPEC. Beautifully written and epic in its scope, this scintillating memoir provides a fascinating history of modern Iran.

"        Distinguished by its political acumen, historical sense, and vividness of description and anecdote. It is also notable for a wry sense of humour. . . . Amid the euphoria about the development of the oilfields of Central Asia and the Transcaucasus, [its] lesson should be kept in mind."
                                         --Anatol Lieven, Financial Times

"A book of stunning beauty . . . One of the best accounts of the cultural and political life of modern Iran, it is exquisite and intimate, rendered with art-istry and detail."                                                                     --Fouad Ajami

Customer Reviews:

A Must Read.......2007-04-15

This book is a must read for anyone who wants to gain an understanding of the psyche of the Iranians and why they feel so bitter towards the way the west has treated them and duped them out of hundreds of billions of dollars. A great insight into the British shenanigans in Iran.
Manouchehr Framanfarmaian was in a unique position during a unique period of Iran's history and I found the story enlightening, interesting, saddening and I am grateful that he wrote it.

The Shah's Iran; Before the Deluge.......2006-02-03

Prince Manucher Farmanfarmaian was born in 1917 as a Prince of Persia's reigning Qajar Dynasty. He was raised in a world of Oriental luxury in his father's harem. After obtaining a "proper" education in England, he returned to his homeland, which had changed forever. The Qajar Dynasty had been overthrown and replaced by a Military Officer named Reza Pahlavi, a man determined to "modernise" Iran. As the new Pahlavi Dynasty worked to break the power of the Persian Nobility, they would lead to the creation of a nation of hedonistic aristocrats, not only divorced from the common people but increasingly from reality in general. Writing these memoirs with the aid of his daughter Roxanne, Prince Farmanfarmaian delves deep into the splendor of the Pahlavi Dynasty, while at the same time revealing the very blunders which brought them down. From the profiteering of Reza Shah the Great, to the disastrous socialism of Mossadegh, to the havoc that the last Shah's "land reform" wreaked on the economy, the reader will deeply enjoy being swept away into a nation's tortured history. When the Mullahs finally seize controll and the Prince is forced to follow the Shah into exile, the reader will be on the edge of their seat wondering if he will finally escape. Prince Manucher and Princess Roxanne are to be applauded for taking up the challenge of the glory that was the Pahlavis, without at all ignoring their warts and pimples.

The Prince of Storytelling.......2003-10-21

Where, oh post-modern America, are you going to find a true tale of royalty and restoration like this? Nowhere, but from the prince himself, Manucher Farman-Farmaian, who sweeps us up in luxuriant confidentiality, whisking us on a gallop through a forgotten era, Shiites and communists hot on our trail.
So he was less than streetwise as dissent gathered like storm clouds. I wanted to see the glory that was Iran--not the darkness descending on it. I wanted to meet the inner sanctum of the Pahlavi dynasty and the relics of Farmaian's own kingly clan. Moreso, I wanted to know that this likable bon vivant escaped the senseless butchery of Khomenei's hoodlums and hangers-on. And when he does, I feel as if we've both escaped. Captivatingly written. I'd read whatever this wise man had to share, about the new life or the old.

An Aristocrats View of Life in the Imperial Iran.......2001-06-14

The author was a previleged and lucky child as he was born into a rich family in Iran and got all the usual perks that came with it. His memoirs regarding historical events in Iran are extremely subjective and the author has not bothered at all even to show a pretense of objectivity. This is not a book for a reader seeking historical knowledge about Iran but it is valuable for a more knowledgable reader to see the how life in Shah's Iran looked from the vantage view of a high official of that regime. For the knowledgable reader who actually knows what was life in Imperial Iran was like, the author provides a clear example of the total ignorance of ruling elite about the internal situation of Iran. The book also gives a clear indication of the "inferiority complex" that had inflicted the Iranian ruling elite where they had total disdain for Iranians and considered everything Western superior.

Apologist.......1999-06-01

Historical review of British involvement is fascinating reading, especially the parts concerning the partnership disputes with the Persian government.

Analysis of political events is shallow particularly from an "insider". Reads more like an apologist making excuses for the Shah. Mostly attributes the unpopularity of the Shah to incompetent government and glosses over the terrible human rights abuses widely reported by Amnesty International on brutal treatment of political opponents of the Shah.

Book Description

In Johnny Holliday: From Rock to Jock, the pioneer Top 40 DJ retraces the steps that carried him from an "all black" R&B station in hometown Miami to his current 24 year tenure as radio play-by-play voice of the University of Maryland Terrapins. Written with his friend and journalist Stephen Moore, Johnny recalls his glory rock and roll DJ days in Cleveland, New York (where he worked with Murray the K), and San Francisco; his job as PA announcer for the Browns, Warriors, and Raiders; his live coverage of nine Olympic Games for ABC Sports; and, in a diverse career that includes creating the "Radio One-ders," the first radio station charity team, his adventures with close friends and professional colleagues like Rick Barry, Paul Hornung, Sal Bando, Joe Theismann, Joe Dimaggio, Morgan Wooten, Denny McLaine, Ted Williams, Sugar Ray Leonard, and U-MD Coaches Gary Williams and Ralph Friedgen.

Customer Reviews:

GREAT READ FROM A GREAT BROADCASTER.......2004-10-17

Johnny Holliday maybe the best announcer that everyone has heard, but didn't know who it was. Johnny is an inspiration and someone that I consider a friend, despite never meeting face to face. I'd recommend you buy it and not wait. But, at least check it out at the library.

Radio Days.......2003-05-24

The age of radio seems to be past, but for sports fans, the voices of radio announcers such as Jack Buck (St. Louis), Kurt Goudy (40-50's) and Ken Coleman for the Red Sox, Johnny Most (Celtics) and Johnny Holliday (The Maryland Terrapins) are part of the enjoyment of the game.

Johnny Holliday wrote a memoir of his life in radio, from his start on an all-black R&B station, to doing a live broadcast of the Beatles, to his stint in sports. The book is laced with famous and not-so-famous names. In fact, if you are a radio buff, this book is for you, because Johnny met nearly everyone and his memory for who's who is sharp and detailed.

If you love radio or are a fan of Johnny, you will enjoy this book--a slice of radio as it was in its heyday.

A concise look at one of the legends of broadcasting.......2003-01-27

You know the name. You know the voice. If you live anywhere near Washington D.C. metropolitan area, you have undoubtedly heard his voice, in one form or another, on the radio. He's Johnny Holliday. Few names resonate with such recognition as Holliday's legendary moniker. In the past 20 years, he has been most notable as the voice of the University of Maryland Terrapins basketball and football teams, and also well known for his voice-over work in radio and television ads. Prior to that, Holliday made many stops around the country as a disc jockey and sports broadcaster. His journeys enabled to be witness to some of the great moments and know some of the great people in music and sports history. "From Rock To Jock" gives the backstory on Johnny Holliday and allows the reader to feel like they are a fly on the wall at all the stops along the way in his remarkable career.

"From Rock to Jock" is a mixture of Holliday's own memories and the memories of those who worked with or knew him. It makes the various stops on Johnny's journey in life more fascinating this way, to see it from multiple perspectives. A moving foreword and afterword by no less broadcast luminaries as Tony Kornheiser and Dick Vitale, respectively, reflect just how well respected Johnny Holliday is. Having met in him in person, I can vouch that he is just as nice and genuine a person as he seems on the radio and in this book.

Some of the more memorable stops in Holliday's journey include his early days at WHK in Cleveland, his high moments in San Francisco, and his eventual settling in his permanent home in Maryland. San Francisco is especially memorable because the reader gets a look at Johnny's legendary charity basketball team, the Oneders (which, at one time counted NBA Hall-of-Famer Rick Barry as a member), and the impact it had on the community. Plus, it reminisces about Johnny emcee-ing the last concert on the last tour ever done by the Beatles. Without a doubt, "From Rock to Jock" is an entertaining read for anyone interested in learning about some of the great moments of the early and later days of radio and sports, and about the man whose career defined and is defined by those events.

A most interesting life........2003-01-11

"From Rock to Jock," the autobiography of Johnny Holliday, is the remarkable telling a most interesting life in radio.

Johnny was at Cleveland's WHK at the inception of the "rock and roll" format; at WINS in NYC with Murray the K when the Beatles broke; and in San Francisco at KYA during the Summer of Love.

At the right place at the right time. Many a familiar name turns up---movers, shakers, characters and bit players.

The second half tells of his Washington journey from WWDC to voice of Maryland basketball and football (over twenty years and counting).

It is a truly remarkable story, interestingly written, that will keeping you smiling and bring on a lot of good memories.

It could be titled "I didn't know!".......2002-12-05

Sports fans here in Maryland know Johnny as the energetic voice of Terp basketball and football. But I DIDN'T KNOW he had such a great run as a DJ in Rock and Roll. He was always in the right place at the right time. Cleveland in the early days of R&R, San Francisco in the mid to late 1960s, New York at Beatles time, etc. For those who remember his R&R days, they will say "I DIDN'T KNOW" when they find out about his legend status here. Actually, the book is such a terrific history of sports and entertainment, from ground level, that you don't even need to know who he is to enjoy it.

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Johnny Holliday: From Rock to Jock
Johnny with Moore, Stephen Holliday
Manufacturer: Sports Publishing, LLC
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
ASIN: B000IX2GKQ

Book Description

Invited by The Guardian newspaper to explore his choice of 100 films in the millennium in a weekly column spanning two years, film writer and critic Derek Malcolm set out on a project which has attracted much attention. This book is a critical celebration of unparalleled knowledge and understanding of what cinema can achieve. Malcolm not only of gives pleasure to filmgoers, but introduces readers to films that they may not yet have discovered. AUTHORBIO: DEREK MALCOLM is President of the International Film Critics Association and writes widely on international cinema. He has been the lead film critic for The Guardian newspaper for over 30 years.

Customer Reviews:

Indeed Contested Territory.......2002-01-03

As a resident of Oklahoma, I found this book to be particularly fascinating. While we are often taught about the history of America as a nation, we are many times left with somewhat of a void as far as history of individual states are concerned. This book demonstrates excellent research skills as told by the many many primary sources. Wickett quite obviously has done his RESEARCH. While many historans today choose to rely on other historians research, Wickett has decided to sift through the abundant primary sources in order to break new ground. His information was thorough, well documented and completely enjoyable to read. My only complaint of the book is that it was not longer; I wanted to read more. Wickett's book would be an asset to the education of history students in Oklahoma as well as anyone interested in our unique history.

Indeed Contested Territory.......2002-01-03

Contested Territory: Whites, Native Americans and African Am.......2001-03-05

I feel this book has great importance and significance in the turbulent field of race relations. While reading this book I was continually struck by the extensive amount of research this historian has completed. I found Wickett's comparison and analysis of African Americans and Native Americans in white society to be fascinating. He clearly points out that while Native Americans were being invited into white society, African Americans were being segregated and pushed to the periphery of American society. The irony of course is that Native Americans did not wish to join white society, while African Americans were more than willing to do so. I feel this book has made an important contribution in the field of race relations.

Well-Trod Territory.......2001-01-30

Contested Territory purports to be an examination of the interactions between whites, blacks and Native Americans in the Indian and Oklahoma Territories prior to statehood. Instead, it offers an old-fashioned, well-worn tale of white oppression and Native American and black reaction. That story might need to be told, but Wickett's attempt is a frustrating failure on many levels. First is Wickett's race-relations model. Wickett seems content to write a history that ignores much of the last three decades of scholarship on race, gender, identity, cultural formation, community building, acts of resistance, etc. (Since I am most familiar with the historiography of African American scholarship, I will use examples from that literature). Wickett shows no familiarity with the body of work produced by Joe Trotter Jr., Darlene Clark Hine, Robin D.G. Kelley, Quintard Taylor (and others of their generation) who have produced masterful, critical analyses of the lived worlds of African American men and women. Black Oklahomans, in Wickett's world, are one amorphous class, reduced for the most part to reacting to whites and, on occasion, Native Americans. Too often Wickett relies on scholarship that is thirty to forty years old. In fact, when I finished the first two chapters, I was certain that Contested Territory was the work of a venerable professor who finally had gotten around to turning 30-year-old lecture notes into a monograph. Instead, we have a scholar who unstintingly relies on the work and subtle biases of historians writing in the 1940s, 1950s and 1960s. He even quotes some of these works at length. Wickett also relies uncritically on the reminisces of early white settlers. He does not challenge any of these recollections of life in early Oklahoma nor consider that the memories of these settlers, most of which cast Native Americans and African Americans in a negative light and were collected by the WPA more than four decades later, might be based more in the settlers' biases than in fact. Contested Territory does offer some new information and Wickett is to be commended for his work in the archives. But the shortcomings of this work more than outweigh its value. I had considered using this as a text in a course that I teach, but I can't in good conscious require that my students purchase such a flawed work. Nor would I want to spend the time trying to erase the negative images that Contested Territory would leave with them.

Freedman & Registration Bills: Passed at the Special Session of the Choctaw Council Indian Territory May 1883 (Constitutions & Laws of the American)

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Freedman & Registration Bills: Passed at the Special Session of the Choctaw Council Indian Territory May 1883 (Constitutions & Laws of the American)
Choctaw Nation
Manufacturer: Scholarly Resources
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 084201876X

Slave Tribes (Dsr1 Accessory Dark Sun Games)

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Good stuff detailing the fate of escaped slaves on Athas.

Slave Tribes (Dsr1 Accessory Dark Sun Games)
Bill Slavicsek
Manufacturer: TSR
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 1560762713

Customer Reviews:

Good stuff detailing the fate of escaped slaves on Athas........1998-07-23

What happens to the many slaves who escape the City-States? Well, the lucky few join the Slave Tribes. This book details several Tribes, from viscious raiders to peaceful artisans, including where they live, how they survive, and how to use them in your game. Excellent stuff. Also has an extended essay on slavery on Athas.

Slave Tribes, Advanced Dungeons & Dragons, 2nd Edition, Dark Sun Official Game Accessory, Tsr 2404

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Slave Tribes, Advanced Dungeons & Dragons, 2nd Edition, Dark Sun Official Game Accessory, Tsr 2404
Bill Slavicsek
Manufacturer: TSR, Inc.
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
ASIN: B000K0DSK4

The Chickasaw Freedmen: A People Without a Country (Contributions in Afro-American and African Studies)

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The Chickasaw Freedmen: A People Without a Country (Contributions in Afro-American and African Studies)
Daniel F. Littlefield
Manufacturer: Greenwood Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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The Paniyas, an ex-slave tribe of South India

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The Paniyas, an ex-slave tribe of South India
A Aiyappan
Manufacturer: Institute of Social Research and Applied Anthropology
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Unknown Binding

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"Perhaps the string that is easiest to pull first...."

Nowhere does Schwartz say that the US is a rogue superpower

good ideas about the future

The future in parallel permutations

Packed with Knowledge!

Inevitable Surprises: Thinking Ahead in a Time of Turbulence
Peter Schwartz
Manufacturer: Gotham
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World

Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation

Powerful Times: Rising to the Challenge of Our Uncertain World

Shell Global Scenarios to 2025

Scenario Planning: The Link Between Future and Strategy

ASIN: 1592400272
Release Date: 2003-06-19

Book Description

One of America's foremost prognosticators and author of the bestseller and management classic The Art of the Long View discusses the big surprises ahead, the resulting scenarios that are creating the future of our world, and what they will mean for you and your business.

The world we live in today is more volatile than ever. At times it seems that the only constant we can rely on is change itself-and what the future will bring appears to be anybody's guess. But Peter Schwartz, one of the most visionary scenario planners of our time, believes the future is taking shape around us now, and that by taking a closer look at the changes in action today, we can predict what the world of tomorrow will be like.

With Inevitable Surprises, Schwartz offers a provocative look at the forces that are dramatically reshaping our world-and shows what we can do to plan ahead for our society, our businesses, and ourselves. Each chapter takes a predetermined new reality that we will soon face-including regenerative medicine, global climate change, an aging population in the West, and the rise of terrorism-and offers critical foresight for the coming decades. Ultimately, Schwartz brings his analyses of these developments together to offer three overarching scenarios that are possible directions for world history in the coming years, and outlines the implications for each.

Timely, thought-provoking, and endlessly fascinating, Peter Schwartz's Inevitable Surprises is a book no one in business-or anyone with an interest in the future-can afford to miss.

Customer Reviews:

"Perhaps the string that is easiest to pull first....".......2006-02-19

Previously, Schwartz wrote The Art of the Long View as well as The Long Boom (which he co-authored with Peter Leyden and Joel Hyatt) and When Good Companies Do Bad Things (which he co-authored with Blair Gibb). In this volume, he addresses many of the same issues as in his previous works. However, in my opinion, he examines them in much greater depth while addressing other issues suggested by questions such as these:

1. In an increasingly more turbulent environment, how to recognize and understand "the inevitable surprises that lie ahead of us, particularly in the next twenty-five years"? For example, how to know what is needed to be known and then obtain that knowledge?

2. Given those "inevitable surprises," which steps must be taken that would allow a company or organization to thrive? For example, how to overcome "two different types of natural [but fundamentally irresponsible] reaction": denial and defensiveness?

3. What to do when new complications reveal themselves? For example, how can an "early-warning system" identify them so that appropriate and effective responses can be made in a timely manner?

Schwartz's response to only one of these questions is worth far more than the cost of his book. As he explains in Chapter 1, "Underneath the specifics, between the lines on every page in this book, you will find a basic message about the future in general: The challenges facing civilization right now are immense -- arguably more difficult than they have been during the lifetime of any living person. At the same time, because of advances in knowledge and technology, the human race has never been so capable. And since most of our challenges are caused, at least partly, by our own activity, this expanded capability is a double-edged sword." In ways and to an extent which Schwartz carefully explains, these are (in Dickens' words) the best of times and the worst of times.

The material is carefully organized within nine chapters whose titles range from "Inevitable Surprises" to "Inevitable Strategies." Of special interest to me is what Schwartz has to say in Chapter 5, "The Thoroughly New World Order." Here is a representative portion of Schwartz's rigorous narrative: "In the words of Robert Kagan, Americans are from Mars and Europeans are from Venus. And then there is a third set of nations, increasingly chaotic and disorderly, in danger of being written off as marginal by the rest of the world. Their power, when they have it, is the power of terrorism. And if that is the only power available to them, they will use it more and more frequently." How prescient.

It is important to keep in mind when reading this book that Schwartz is not relying on a real or imagined crystal ball. He would be the first to insist that, at best, useful speculation identifies degrees of probability. This is especially true of efforts to reduce the number of what would otherwise be "inevitable surprises."

Here's a hypothetical example. (Mine, not Schwartz's.) Let's say that you learn that your next competitive environment will probably involve competition by teams. You cannot (as yet) identify the specific sport but you already know that, whatever it proves to be, members of the team must be in superb physical condition and possess certain qualities such as speed, agility, sufficient intelligence, hand-eye coordination, commitment to teamwork, etc. You should also know where to obtain, on short notice, the equipment needed. Also the correct sizes for various uniforms. Terms and conditions of appropriate behavior can be formulated. Nutrition can be controlled. You can also be alert for "signals" generated by your early-warning system. For example, at some point, you learn that the competition will be indoors. You then learn that height is irrelevant. That rules out basketball. You get the idea.

In all of three of his books that I have read, Schwartz helps his reader to (a) identify relevant probabilities, (b) ask the most important questions bount each, (c) know how and where to obtain the information needed, (d) complete contingency preparations, and (e) modify plans as new information becomes available.

Over the past 50 years, there have been so many examples of this in the business world. They include the pressurized cabin which was essential to airline travel and the rapid adoption of facsimile machines which substantially reduced the volume of overnight delivery of 1-5 page documentsas well as the Internet and WWW which enabled those online to communicate with others online (anywhere and any time), obtain information and complete commercial transactions almost instantaneously. As Schwartz explains so well, once relevant probabilities and heir implications have been identified, better decisions can be made and more effective actions can be taken.

Schwartz is generally optimistic that those who share the "thoroughly new world order" can overcome the chaos and turbulence to come if (a huge "if") they build and then maintain sensory and intelligence systems; cultivate a sense of timing; put in place mechanisms to engender what Joseph Stumper once characterized as "creative destruction"; avoid denial of the chaos and turbulence; "think like a commodity company" (see page 232); remain aware of the competence of judgment and the level of judgment that new situations require, then move deliberately and humbly into new situations that stretch that judgment; place a very, very high premium on learning, on environmental and ecological sustainability, and on financial infrastructure; and finally, cultivate "deep, candid" connections.

Schwartz does not assert that these values and strategies will guarantee the total elimination of all of the problems we have now nor the prevention of others in years to come. However, he has convinced me that these values and strategies can -- and will -- improve the prospects for human survival. I agree with him that "There is no recipe or playbook for doing this. There is only the ongoing knot of life to unravel. Perhaps the string that is easiest to pull first is the string in inevitable surprises."

Nowhere does Schwartz say that the US is a rogue superpower.......2005-06-02

David Taylor got it all wrong. Being European, I actually felt a little pro-American bias about the book...but not much. Nowhere did Schwartz say that the US is a rogue superpower. What he says is that there is a "growing distaste" of the US as a "rogue superpower", and this is a fact and not a biased opinion. It is not even an opinion at all.

good ideas about the future.......2005-03-31

If you think the future is predictable, read this book. The author seems rather pessimistic about the future, especially considering his earlier book, The Long Boom.

The future in parallel permutations.......2004-12-24

I got this book, Inevitable Surprises, written by Peter Schwartz, because the one that I was looking for (the Art of the Long View) was not available at that time. The author's works have been recommended to me by a close friend of mine, so I made little hesitation before picking this one up.

He wrote about different aspects of the global society, and predicting trends (trends, not events. He's not psychic) for the following 30 years from 2003. Many of these trends have already happened, or happened long before, despite many obvious major events that happened shortly before the time of its publication.

Although a good portion of his "scenarios" are not so upbeat, (e.g., the rest of the world pulling the plug on Africa, and new radical groups, new diseases) they are already taking place. I personally will not deem his book pessimatic, but realistic. They are simply results of human nature, and its interactions between one another, nothing more.

Even though he had a technical background (aeronautic engineering), his discussion on technogical advances a little too optimistic. Being (or was until recently) an engineer by trade, I still think that, as promising are new technologies may be, such as quantum computing and space travel, it would take more than 30 years before such technologies become prominent.

There is still a pretty subtle indication, that Schwartz may not fare well with the Arab nations. Some of his comments, albeit still very neutral and professional, tilts slightly to the negative whenever he touches this particular subject. The reasons are likely his own, and I will not speculate any further.

This is a good book to pick up, if you are looking for the driving forces of the present and near future, and would like to know how they interact, which is the basis of scenario planning, a subject of his "claim-to-fame" book, the Art of the Long View. After reading both books, I tend to think "Long View" as the book on concepts (in scenario planning) and Inevitasble surprises as the one of its machinery. Both works should be read simultaneously.

P.S. - Regarding the "technical error" made by a certain reviewer, METHANE IS A FUEL, and it is often referred to as NATURAL GAS, which is about 94% methane by mass. I can go for miles, but it will be quite off topic.

Packed with Knowledge!.......2004-08-04

Change is no news. The great changes that will alter the commercial, political and demographic workings of the world are already underway and some of their consequences are quite predictable, says author Peter Schwartz. He outlines a variety of the more important changes, particularly in places such as China and India, and limns scenarios that represent possible futures. Perhaps this sort of book is inevitable at the turning of a century, of a millennium. The author, in fact, compares his work to predecessors at the end of the nineteenth century. Although some of his predictions fall far short of shocking - for example, global warming and aging populations are hardly undiscovered issues - the exercise of thinking about scenarios and preparing strategies is a good one. The book is also entertaining, because Schwartz writes with a light hand and a casual style. We believe this book would be a good airplane read. It would certainly be appropriate for a long flight, since air travel contributes to some of the more important changes the author discusses. And, if you read it, the time will fly.

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