Deflation: Why it's coming, whether it's good or bad, and how it will affect your investments, business, and personal affairs

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Shilling's use of Kondratieff theory

Excellent book, easy to read, in depth analysis

Informed & rational summary of a plausible scenario.

This book is a MUST read for investors!

Compelling arguments; 'must read' for investors.

Deflation: Why it's coming, whether it's good or bad, and how it will affect your investments, business, and personal affairs
A. Gary Shilling
Manufacturer: Lake View Publishing
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

Economic Conditions | Economics | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books
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Book Description

Although all eyes have been on Southeast Asia since October, it's not the only game around. A broader look shows that the financial crisis in that part of the world is to global deflation what the 1973 oil embargo was to inflation: it focuses and augments the many forces already at work. For the last two decades, governments, corporations, and new technologies have promoted actions that, given certain triggers, will push prices down.

In his comprehensive new book, Deflation, A. Gary Shilling points out the deflationary forces at work in the world, analyzes the impact of the Asian financial crisis, and predicts the kind of deflation that will likely result.

Governments, for example, have done their part by reducing spending and shrinking deficits. With the Cold War over, US defense spending keeps falling dropping from 7.4% of GDP in the third quarter of 1986 to 4% in the first quarter of 1998. Continental governments endure double- digit unemployment rates to move toward the Maastricht target, deficits no more than 3% of GDP. Deregulation among utilities and services is also lowering prices. In the US, Citizens for a Sound Economy, a Republican think-tank, predicts that deregulation of the electricity market would lead to a drop of "at least 43%" in consumers' electricity bills.

Meanwhile, central banks are still fighting the last war, inflation, with higher interest rates. Corporations are adding to deflation momentum with the restructuring that started in the US and UK in the 1980s and has spread to other English-speaking lands. Global outsourcing now provides not only less expensive goods but also cheaper services, including credit card processing and computer programming. Computer and information technology has deflation written all over it. Hardware and software are notoriously prone to price cuts, and users buy the stuff to reduce their own costs.

Outside the US, newly industrialized countries as well as countries recently freed from Communism are becoming major players in the export market. The result is a global glut of products and no one to buy them. With Southeast Asia's financial woes, its consumers are not much of a market, and the US the world's happy dumping ground can only buy so much. Faced with increasing global glut, countries wanting to use exports to improve their economies are more likely than ever to devalue their currencies. No doubt a strengthening dollar is deflationary to the US, and no doubt it is currently welcomed by Washington. But what happens as global glut and weak US exports meet rising labor costs, spurred by the drum-tight US labor market, head on? What happens if a profit squeeze kills overpriced US stocks, and individual investors who rely on their equity portfolios as their savings accounts suffer big losses?

Consumers retrench. Then they watch prices fall, and in a classic move that makes deflation a self-feeding phenomenon, they wait for prices to go even lower before spending a dime.

If, by some slim chance, the Asian crisis proves to be a nonevent for the US, the Federal Reserve will no doubt tighten credit and probably precipitate a recession, preceded, as usual, by a bear market in US stocks. The net effect on consumer behavior would be the same, and as with the case of an Asian-initiated bear market, the end result would be deflation.

When we in the US think of deflation, we think of the 1930s. Its images of soup lines and shanty towns are so vivid that any other idea of deflation pales by comparison. But there was deflation after the Civil War without the financial collapse of the '30s. The deflation Dr. Shilling forecasts coming soon is more likely to be characterized by the oversupply of the late 19th century than the unemployment of the Depression.

The final chapters of Deflation explain how deflation will affect you. Should you keep your stock investments or switch to bonds? Will your company need to be restructured again? What should you do about inventories? Have you personally been saving enough? Dr. Shilling gives you 13 investment strategies, 18 business strategies, and five personal strategies that will work in the deflationary years ahead.

Be prepared. In future years we may conclude that in the summer of 1997, Asia was the trigger for global deflation.

Customer Reviews:

Shilling's use of Kondratieff theory.......2000-05-22

A careful look at the book shows that Shilling's THEORY for deflation is based on the longwaves of Kondratieff. Shilling uses a real (as in real business cycle literature) rather than a monetary interpretation (a la Milton Friedman, Irving Fisher..) of longwaves which results in his use of 1974 (following the oil shock) rather than 1980 (following the tight monetary policies by central banks under the guise of Monetarist doctrine) as the beginning of the current wave down.

Excellent book, easy to read, in depth analysis.......1999-03-06

I found this easy-to-read book very profound in its analysis of the inflation-disinflation-deflation pattern that we are witnessing today.

The book is filled with charts that highlight the author's message. The last several chapters on investment, business, and personal strategies are priceless.

No weasel words in this book. Lots of forecasts.

John D.

Informed & rational summary of a plausible scenario........1999-01-29

Shilling predicts good - rather than bad deflation (at least for the USA): i.e. surging demand absorbing excess supply because of price falls. It is a US-centric view - weaker on the international side. Deflation addresses an important & neglected subject. The slow start is tolerable because of good, up-to-date graphs and data generally. Happily he is consultant-clear rather than economist-arcane. His analysis of the US economy is compelling & useful for foreign readers. Nonetheless, there are questions: will policymakers (including central bankers) not adjust; e.g. I understand that defense spending has started rising again. Shilling's review of factors such as the internet is useful. The foreign material is poorer - though his Asian chapters are good. Bizarrely for such a serious & scholarly work, there is no index.

Shilling is worth reading - he thinks the west will experience `good' rather than `bad' deflation - but how deep will the Deflation be and how long will it last? He could have usefully studied natural resources in more depth; after all, this is where deflation hit hardest and earliest. I will read him again.

This book is a MUST read for investors!.......1998-11-30

This book will help you make sense out of the headlines you have been seeing everyday in the business section of your paper. It will help you "connect the dots" about megatrends you maybe were aware of, but not taking into account with your investment decisions. I read this back in August 1998, and it is amazing how current events seem to be playing out almost exactly as forecasted in the book. You should not miss the chance to read this.

Compelling arguments; 'must read' for investors........1998-11-17

Quick, compelling arguments to change the way you think about the economy and the future. Well written and easy to understand, and fairly light reading for economics. "Must read" for investors, those approaching retirement, etc. Especially important for those with a lot of debt, or thinking about doing a lot of borrowing. Not a 'doomsday' piece, but very thought-provoking as to understanding new ways to win in investing.

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This book presents methods for analyzing trends in income inequality over time. The different innovative techniques which the authors have developed for the examination of changes in the size distribution of income, are for the first time described in a consistent and coherent fashion. The methods are based on the maximum entropy principle which is intuitively explained in the book. New ways to analyze Lorenz curves are introduced as well as new techniques for comparing income distributions (and the level of inequality inherent herein) both over time and across space. The book should be of interest to students, scholars and policy makers alike.

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This study examines concepts of nationalism as they effect stability in general, particularly economic stability, in Third World nations. Macesich discusses how emerging nations use economic nationalism as an integrative force to accelerate economic development. He shows how growing world interdependence makes such policies a major cause of monetary instability. In view of the dangerous side effects of economic nationalism, the author recommends a cosmopolitan alternative, with a system of well-defined guidelines within lawful policy systems that constrain bureaucracies and elites from the discretionary exercise of power especially in the monetary and financial areas.

Monetary Nationalism and International Stability (Reprints of Economic Classics)

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Monetary Nationalism and International Stability (Reprints of Economic Classics)
Friedrich A. Hayek
Manufacturer: A. M. Kelley
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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Russia in the New Century: Stability or Disorder?

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Russia in the New Century: Stability or Disorder?

Manufacturer: Westview Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

Development & Growth | Economics | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books

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Economic Nationalism and Stability
George MacEsich
Manufacturer: Praeger
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
ASIN: B000OA6VTK

Book Description

With an emphasis on learning and understanding by doing, this book takes the reader from music fundamentals through harmony in common practice to some of the more important harmonic procedures of the 20th century. The book, easily accessible to all readers, is an excellent reference for the experienced musician. An abundance of musical examples can be found in every chapter. Analytical examples are drawn from three popular anthologies. Exercises are found in every chapter, often with “Suggestions and Strategies” to help the reader approach the exercises intelligently and systematically. Foundations, designed to ensure that the reader has a solid grasp of fundamentals, Harmony in Common Practice designed to develop a complete understanding of the principles of tertian harmony as they pertain to common practice by means of the Diatonic Vocabulary and Chromatic Vocabulary and Post-Common Practice Harmony designed to introduce the student to some of the more important harmonic procedures that have either evolved from or developed as a reaction to common practice. In all, the book is divided into 30 chapters. Beginning musicians wishing to learn the key elements of harmony or experienced musicians wishing to review the basics of harmony.

Customer Reviews:

Very simple Language! pretty comprehensive! but not very deep.......2007-07-25

I am a mathemaician!! and I am studying this book along with two other books ( the shaping of music by Russel and Elementary harmony by Ottman) to hopefully write music!!

This book as the other reviewer said doesn't have exmples from literature but at the end of each chapter as exercises it referes you to designated pages from three other books that contain examples in literature. Here I should say the book covers the material in a rather easy language much easier! somehow more clear than other two books that I am reading!

In the book (page 261) says that borrowed chords are nearly always appear in the major key! while obviosly, in minor keys the chords: I ( picardy third) and ii, IV ( in melodic minor when 6 is raised) are not unusual.

I guess we have still a long way to see a good book in harmony. something real practical. But for now, i guess if you want to learn harmony by yourself you should read maybe several books!!

Unenthusiastic.......2006-01-17

I'm not as enthusiastic as the previous reviewer. I have taught music theory at all levels for 17 years, and while there is good material in Spencer's The Practice of Harmony, there is much that seems downright peculiar. If your theory professor assigns this book, of course you've got to use it; otherwise, much of the material is presented more clearly in other sources. The problems are twofold: reliance on standard theoretical concepts divorced from practice or context, and Spencer's attempt to either explain concepts in new ways or offer shortcuts in learning or remembering the concepts--it's a laudable effort, to be sure, but one which leads him astray.

Take, for example, this wonderfully abstruse line from his "Suggestions and Strategies" for learning triad quality: "If the root of a triad is natural and the fifth is flat, or if the root is sharp and the fifth is natural, or if the fifth is double-flat, the triad is diminished." (p. 69) All that may well be true, but if you've memorised that and still can't tell that the third of the chord is minor and the fifth is diminished, you have no recognition of what a diminished triad IS. There's quite a difference between naming and understanding, and Spencer ignores this.

Another and much more significant problem occurs with Spencer's explanation of the minor. Frankly, he doesn't seem to understand that there is not a "harmonic minor key" or a "natural minor key"--he does not use the terms, but in the section "Triads in Major and Minor Keys" (p. 68) he shows the triads first on C major, then on A minor (natural), a minor (harmonic), and a minor (melodic)--ascending only. Now, while there are SCALES in these various forms of the minor, they represent quite different things from the triads that are found in most common practice period music. Even triads built on the harmonic minor scale, with a triad of III+ (augmented) do not reflect the actual triads in most music--III is much more commonly found in the music as a major triad than as an augmented one, regardless of the theory. Minor is a complex situation, not easily explained; but a piece is in a minor mode which uses the various forms of minor--melodic for the melodies (mostly), harmonic for the harmonies (mostly, except III), and in Classical music, almost never natural--purely a theoretical construct because of the key signature linkage with the relative major. Natural minor in Classical music occurs as the descending form of the melodic minor. The real problem is that the minor scales are all theoretical constructs and not reflective of the music--the issue is how to handle scale degrees 6 and 7. To solve this, rather than address it directly, Spencer introduces yet another theoretical construct, the 'synthetic' minor scale, made up of a combination of all the other forms together. It's an appalling idea, one I've never seen elsewhere, and totally without context. Spencer would have been better served by introducing the minor mode in its own chapter, rather than trying to tack it on as an appendage to the major mode.

Lack of context lies at the heart of Spencer's approach, and to be fair this is true of far too many theory books. Instead of discussing the basis of functional harmony in the Classical Period, for example, we get the same tired "Primary Triads in Root Position". I'm of the firm belief that discussion function of chords--Dominant preparation for ii and IV, Dominant function for V and vii, Tonic for I and Tonic substitute for vi in major--is much more useful than listing all the "rules" of doublings, etc. Similarly, cadence types are named, but the functions of the various types are not described.

All in all, Spencer's approach in The Practice of Harmony is an odd combination of pretty standard pedantic theory and new, sometimes confusing approaches. Theory is really nothing by itself; without a musical context it is meaningless. Yet Spencer never attempts to provide such a context; indeed, he uses not a single example from actual music literature. You are better served elsewhere.

Very Good Book!.......2000-09-15

It is an excellent book of harmony.It has a great number of exercices.The only thing that i got worried about was the very FEW examples concerning the contents of the book, but if you read carefully you will understand what the author wanted to say!But i still wish the author included more examples of the contents , mainly about the Four-part writing. Anyway, i really enjoyed the book and i am learning a lot from it!

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The Categories of Dialectical Materialism: Contemporary Soviet Ontology Translated from the French by T.J. Blakeley (Sovietica)
Guy Planty-Bonjour
Manufacturer: Springer
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

Popular Culture | Social Sciences | Nonfiction | Subjects | Books
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Book Description

Digital TV offers many advantages over analog TV, but the transition process is complex and costly. This book explains how the process is unfolding in the U.S. and Britain and explores the changes in the legal framework and the industry structure associated with it. It is a unique study about the technological, political, and social factors shaping the emergence of the Information Society in the U.S. and Europe.

New Television, Old Politics: The Transition to Digital TV in the United States and Britain.(Book Review) : An article from: Federal Communications Law Journal

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New Television, Old Politics: The Transition to Digital TV in the United States and Britain.(Book Review) : An article from: Federal Communications Law Journal
Jeffrey A. Hart
Manufacturer: Thomson Gale
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Digital

General | Politics | Nonfiction | Subjects | Books

Book Description

This digital document is an article from Federal Communications Law Journal, published by Thomson Gale on January 1, 2006. The length of the article is 2308 words. The page length shown above is based on a typical 300-word page. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Digital Locker immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.

From the author: A review of Hernan Galperin's New Television, Old Politics: The Transition to Digital TV in the United States and Britain, Cambridge University Press, 2004. Based on comparative case studies in Britain and the United States, this book analyzes the transition to digital television in both countries, considers governmental regulatory strategies, and focuses on the impact of various factors, including political influence and market and technological changes.

Citation Details
Title: New Television, Old Politics: The Transition to Digital TV in the United States and Britain.(Book Review)
Author: Jeffrey A. Hart
Publication: Federal Communications Law Journal (Magazine/Journal)
Date: January 1, 2006
Publisher: Thomson Gale
Volume: 58 Issue: 1 Page: 215(7)

Article Type: Book Review

Distributed by Thomson Gale

Book Description

The only Windows XP Professional book you need! Finally, the Windows NT/2000 line of products sports the elegance and usability of Windows 95/98/Me. Windows XP Professional is the operating system for which power users have pined since NT 4 was released in 1996. Like most corporate operating systems, however, early corporate adoptions have been slow as corporations wait for Microsoft service patches to shore up the inevitable security, networking, and usability bugs that plague every new Microsoft OS. SP-1 delivers just that and promises to usher in a wave of corporate adoptions. Also included, more than 45 minutes of video from Brainsville.com! This personal seminar introduces the viewer to Windows XP and demonstrates how to use it, covering topics ranging from mastering the new XP user interface to how to set up and fine tune a local area network.

Customer Reviews:

Good for beginners and moderately experienced users.......2002-12-30

I am a UNIX professional who has fallen behind in my knowledge of Windows. So, when I purchased my latest PC, I decided to jump back in and learn Windows XP by purchasing this book. Keep in mind that I have used Windows 95/98/2000 in the past, but only to get my work done. Saying that, I did not find the first half of this book worthwhile. It very much holds your hand and is lacking detail and specifics. However, I feel it would be good for Windows XP neophytes.

The second half I found to be a slightly more valuable "system administration" section. Topics like dual booting, editing the registry, and performance tuning were very interesting to me. However, each of these topics could fill its own book so it is understandable that this book can't explain them in full detail. Still, a lot of this was new to me in the Windows world and I found it a worthwhile read. It definitely increased my knowledge of Windows XP. However, if you're a professional Windows System Administrator or Tech Support, I feel this book isn't enough.

Overall, the book seems to be well written and fairly free of grammatical errors and typos. The authors stick in some humor to keep it interesting. I appreciated the number of URL's added by the authors for screensavers, news articles, downloads and what not. While simple, this definitely adds value. Most importantly, the URL's actually worked when I tried them! The author's tips also add a slight amount of value.

I cannot comment on the included video CD-ROM as I do not prefer to learn that way. I learn better from reading and doing, so I skipped this. Based on the CD-ROM's description page, it sounds like a lot of basic topics for people with little experience. So, the value of the CD-ROM will ultimately depend on the reader's level of experience.

In a nutshell, this book did exactly what I purchased it for. It brought me back up to speed with Windows XP. It also markets itself for a user level of "Beginner-Intermediate". That is why I gave it 4 stars. However, it's title of, "The only Windows XP book you'll ever need" is obviously marketing hype, which I have come to expect from most all computer books.

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