Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance (Clarendon Lectures in Economics)

Book Description

The efficient markets hypothesis has been the central proposition in finance for nearly thirty years. It states that securities prices in financial markets must equal fundamental values, either because all investors are rational or because arbitrage eliminates pricing anomalies. This book describes an alternative approach to the study of financial markets: behavioral finance. This approach starts with an observation that the assumptions of investor rationality and perfect arbitrage are overwhelmingly contradicted by both psychological and institutional evidence. In actual financial markets, less than fully rational investors trade against arbitrageurs whose resources are limited by risk aversion, short horizons, and agency problems. The book presents and empirically evaluates models of such inefficient markets. Behavioral finance models both explain the available financial data better than does the efficient markets hypothesis and generate new empirical predictions. These models can account for such anomalies as the superior performance of value stocks, the closed end fund puzzle, the high returns on stocks included in market indices, the persistence of stock price bubbles, and even the collapse of several well-known hedge funds in 1998. By summarizing and expanding the research in behavioral finance, the book builds a new theoretical and empirical foundation for the economic analysis of real-world markets.

Customer Reviews:

Best introductory book on behavioral finance.......2007-01-05

As has been admitted by even the staunchest former proponents of financial economics (such as Burton Malkiel), the multi-decades old dominant intellectual field in academic finance has piled up against itself persistent anomalous data. Thus, it is no surprise, as the science of economics advanced, that a new intellectual field would develop to challenge and replace the old. Behavioral finance, which relaxes some of the key assumptions in financial economics, utilizes survey data, and integrates knowledge from psychology to better understand financial markets, is that new intellectual field.

Although still controversial, young economists and financial professionals should become versed in this new field as early as possible: 1) because there is huge room for new research where creative economists can flex their muscle and 2) financial professionals that drop the old adherence to financial economics will have an edge over those that don't. Andrei Shleifer's work is the best introductory work on behavioral finance that I've come across, and I thus strongly recommend it to those who want a quick and easy to understand introduction to this field which is the wave of the future of academic finance (well, I hope).

Robert Stephenson-Padron
MSc student (economics & finance)
University of Navarra, Spain

Arguments Against the Efficient Market Hypothesis.......2005-01-15

Inefficient Markets by Harvard economist Andrei Shleifer provides a strong argument against the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) in its various forms and an introduction to Behavioral Finance. Shleifer's main points are summarized below.

1. The EMH comes in three forms. The Weak Form states that an investor can not achieve returns above the market averages based on the analysis of historical stock price patterns (Technical Analysis). The Semi-Strong Form states that all publicly available news is reflected in stock prices almost instantaneously and that an investor can not beat the market averages by diligently tracking company earnings and other events (Fundamental Analysis). Finally, the Strong Form says that an investor can not beat the market even by using information that is not available to the public (Insider Trading). The Strong Form can be dismissed by considering the number of corporate executives currently under indictment or serving time for insider trading. Evidence against the Semi-Strong and Weak Forms can be found in the Small Stock Effect (small stocks outperform the market) and January Effect (the market does best in January) which seemed to hold until they were widely publicized but have presumably been negated since then by arbitrage. Additional evidence against the EMH can be found in the less than perfect correlation between the price movements of Royal Dutch and Shell Transport and Trading shares which jointly own the Royal Dutch Shell enterprise in a fixed 60%/40% ratio. Furthermore, the prevalence of a 10% to 20% discount in the share price of closed end funds relative to their net asset values suggests that the market is less than efficient.
2. In Chapters 2-4, Shleifer demonstrates the limits of arbitrage in maintaining efficient markets. He develops a mathematical model for predicting the returns of arbitrageurs (who accurately perceive the values of stocks) and noise traders (who incorrectly perceive the same values). His Noise Trader Model explains how noise traders can sometimes achieve higher returns than arbitrageurs based on the "hold more" and "create space" effects. The "hold more" effect is based on the community of noise traders egging each other on as was seen in the technology bubble that burst in 2000. The "create space" effect says that the wider the range of incorrect perceptions held by noise traders, the less effective arbitrageurs will be in bring stock prices back to their correct values. Shleifer uses the Noise Trader Model to make additional predictions about the market behavior of closed end funds and shows that, unlike the EMH, it accurately models such phenomena as the rise in share price to the underlying net asset value upon liquidation or reorganization as an open end fund. Finally, he shows that professional arbitrageurs, such as hedge fund operators, are forced to adopt more conservative tactics than individual arbitrageurs by their need to retain clients and funding.
3. In Chapters 5 and 6, Shleifer develops a model of Investor Sentiment based on investors' patterns of psychological underreaction and overreaction. Investors tend to underreact to new information (such as reported earnings) by modifying their perception of a stock's value by less that the new information would suggest and continuing to extrapolate the old stock price trend. If confronted with repeated inputs of new information that consistently points in the same direction, investors tend to overreact by discarding the old model, accepting the recent trend as the new model, and extrapolating it into the future. Finally, he shows how investor sentiments can form a positive feedback trading environment in which arbitrage can actually destabilize the market.

This is a book for serious students of finance. It's not a "Behavioral Finance for Dummies". However, the math does not require more than a year of calculus and a good understanding of calculus-based probability and statistics. Shleifer's writing style is remarkably clear for an academic economist (many of whom I find able to obfuscate the simplest concepts). Overall, Inefficient Markets is a long-overdue reexamination of the theoretical underpinnings of modern finance theory.

Some of Roseblatt's comments are wrong.......2004-12-25

Beneath my comments, writes Roseblatt:

=====================
In chapter 4, he is concerned with the 'limits of arbitrage' (the original title of this paper, published in the JOF in 1997). This paper is definitely worth reading to understand the problems with hedge funds and other arbitrageurs. However, linking the limits of arbitrageurs to 'inefficiency of the market' is erroneous. The very fact that arbitrageurs can not take advantage of what they think are mispriced assets, due to collateral constraints (Schleifer's hypothesis), shows that the market is efficient, since no free money is floating around.
=============================

No, with the 'limits of arbitrage', the mispricing cannot be corrected quickly. The logic lies like this: suppose A sees the arbitrage opportunity, but due to the "limit", he can only trade certain shares, and makes $10 FREE MONEY. He knows there is still another $10 "on the table", but he cannot take action anymore. At this point, if no one else sees this arbitrage opportunity, the market remains inefficient until another arbitrageir B jumps in and remove that "remaining $10 on the table". Of course A and B made "free money". Shleifer's treatment is perfectly Okay. Roseblatt's rebuttal is illogic and obviously wrong.

However, EMH itself is a hoax. It is not scientific at all. I believe in the early days, financial economics was dominated by people who had little quantitative or science training, therefore, they could only do something like EMH sort of soft libral arts type of research. To me, it is not EMH, it is how quickly the information gets reflected in stock prices; and how big is the limit of arbitrage. Nothing else. I suggest the new generation of high-level finance researchers should totally discard this spurious EMH topic. Period.

A good intro to Behavioral Finance.......2003-05-29

Markets are not efficient in part because Investor Sentiment is a strong factor creating momentum (either upward or downward trend, whether sentiment is positive or negative). Also, arbitrage is very weak, as there are no proper securities substitutes, shorting the indexes is too risky. The "Noise Trader Risk" is too great. Meaning equity values may continue to diverge long enough for the arbitrageurs to loose their shirt betting on convergence. The investor type is a very important characteristic to factor. This explains the close end fund puzzle. The discount on closed end fund tracks the fate of small cap stocks. When small cap stocks do poorly, the discount on closed end funds deepens. This is because both investments are dominated by the same type of investors: individuals - small investors. Thus, both investment types are subject to small investors' sentiments.

Too much maths but interesting interpretation.......2002-09-11

There is too much maths in the book. However, the comments and interpretation on various models are very interesting. The authour distinguish between arbitrageurs and noise traders. He also give us a theory of substituability which is interesting but inapplicable in reality. Too much theory also with a lot of hypothesis that are not respected in real markets.
I was looking more for a book on investment psychology and I was disappointed.

Average customer rating:

Good (if overpriced) little book
A Real Eye Opener
Good Analysis
Good accessible book on market inefficiencies.
Badly written book with lot of mistakes

The Inefficient Stock Market
Robert A. Haugen
Manufacturer: Prentice Hall
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 0130323667

Book Description

Sparked with wit and humor, this clever and insightful book provides clear evidence that the stock market is inefficient. In the author's view, models based on rational economic behavior cannot explain important aspects of market behavior. The book tackles important issues in today's financial market in a highly conversational and entertaining manner that will appeal to most readers. Chapter topics include: estimating expected return with the theories of modern finance, estimating portfolio risk and expected return with ad hoc factor models, payoffs to the five families, predicting future stock returns with the expected-return factor model, super stocks and stupid stocks, the international results, the topography of the stock market, the positive payoffs to cheapness and profitability, the negative payoff to risk, and the forces behind the technical payoffs to price-history. For anyone who wants to learn more about today's financial markets.

Customer Reviews:

Good (if overpriced) little book.......2007-06-17

This book is not:
1. A thorough critique of CAPM and APT
2. Long
3. A good explanation of why certain inefficiencies exist in the market

That being said, the book is a good essay on how to look for and find various factors that lead towards market outperformance. Haugen uses regression models and some common-sense statistical reasoning to choose which factors are actually useful.

A Real Eye Opener.......2006-08-20

A must read if you want to understand what makes stocks prices move. A technical book but written in a very accessible and easy to read style.

Good Analysis.......2003-06-07

The Inefficient Stock Market is a nice slap in the face to Modern Finance. Getting my MBA, i was always turned off by Portfolio Management Theory because of the unrealistic assumptions made on the onset (such as everyone being rational and everyone holding an efficient market portfolio). Mr. Haugen provides a great analysis and statistical evidence to show that many of those critical assumptions are in fact wrong.

He also provides an investment strategy of sorts that outperforms the S&P 500. All hedge fund managers should read this book.

Good accessible book on market inefficiencies........2001-12-17

Most investors would benefit from reading this book. It is a good overview of what is known about market inefficiencies and how they can be exploited.

For those who find it too down-market, he also has a weighty tome called "Modern Investment Theory" which is more thorough and more academic in tone. As an example, it describes how to combine Markowicz's techniques with factor models to exploit the inefficiencies more effectively than the approach suggested in 'What works on Wall St' etc.

Badly written book with lot of mistakes.......2001-09-10

I think that CAMP, APT, etc aren't good for investors, but this book misleads them even more. There are several mistakes, and opposite data in various chapters.

Is technical analysis profitable on a stock market which has characteristics that suggest it may be inefficient? [An article from: Research in International Business and Finance]

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Is technical analysis profitable on a stock market which has characteristics that suggest it may be inefficient? [An article from: Research in International Business and Finance]
B.R. Marshall , and R.H. Cahan
Manufacturer: Elsevier
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Digital
ASIN: B000RR7F36

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This digital document is a journal article from Research in International Business and Finance, published by Elsevier in . The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Media Library immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.

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This paper considers the returns to technical analysis on the New Zealand stock market. The small nature, short-selling constraints, lack of analyst coverage, and loose insider trading regulation suggest that the New Zealand equity market may be less efficient than overseas markets. This raises the possibility that technical analysis is still profitable in New Zealand. Using a bootstrapping technique with common null models for stock returns and 12 popular technical trading rules, we find that the returns to technical analysis in New Zealand follow a similar pattern to those in large offshore markets. Technical analysis is no longer profitable.

The Inefficient Stock Market : What Pays Off and Why

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The Inefficient Stock Market : What Pays Off and Why
Robert A. Haugen
Manufacturer: Prentice Hall
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
ASIN: B000OHH9GM

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The Inefficient Stock Market: What Pays Off and Why
Robert A. Haugen
Manufacturer: Prentice Hall
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How secure are electronic cash transfers, deposits and payments? Who is responsible if your money vanishes into cyberspace? Is your credit card safe when ordering via the Internet? Brett Woods, a former U.S. Treasury employee, can answer these questions and help you enjoy the benefits of electronic banking.

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Jointly published with INRA, Paris.Bacterial wilt, caused by Ralstonia solanacearum, is a very destructive plant disease that attacks over 450 different species, including many of the most important economic crop plants. Often endemic, the bacterium transmits through the soil, penetrates the plant root system and eventually causes irreversible wilting and death. This book summarizes the current information on bacterial wilt for both the basic research community and for concerned professionals who are faced with the disease in the field, offering the latest approaches to diagnosis and control of the disease. Emphasis is placed on integrated and biologically sustainable control methods. Also presented is the most recent genetic/biochemical research exploring the interaction between the bacterium and its plant host at the molecular level.

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From a review of an earlier volume: 'Both the experimental and the human aspects of teratology are presented in this comprehensive text by a stellar group of internationally recognized scientists and clinicians....A valuable resource for those concerned with experimental teratology and risk assessment and those requiring general information about the causes of birth defects. The treatment of these issues is sophisticated, succinct, and logical.'-American Scientist

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Issues and Reviews in Teratology
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Issues and Reviews in Teratology (Issues and Reviews in Teratology)

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Issues and Reviews in Teratology (Issues and Reviews in Teratology)
Harold Kalter
Manufacturer: Springer
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ISSUES AND REVIEWS IN TERATOLOGY, VOL. 4 (HB) "

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ISSUES AND REVIEWS IN TERATOLOGY, VOL. 4 (HB) "
H. kalter
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ISSUES AND REVIEWS IN TERATOLOGY, VOL. 5 (HB) "

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ISSUES AND REVIEWS IN TERATOLOGY, VOL. 5 (HB) "
H. kalter
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ISSUES AND REVIEWS IN TERATOLOGY, VOL. 6 (HB) "

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ISSUES AND REVIEWS IN TERATOLOGY, VOL. 6 (HB) "
Harold Kalter
Manufacturer: Springer
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
ASIN: B000OSKXVE

Book Description

Variations in seismic Q are sensitive to a much greater extent than are seismic velocity variations on factors such as temperature, fluid content, and the movement of solid state defects in the earth. For that reason an understanding of Q and its variation with position in the earth and with time should provide information in earth's tectonic evolution, as well as on aspects of its internal structure. Progress in understanding Q has suffered from difficulty in obtaining reliable amplitude data at global and temporary stations. Moreover, laboratory determinations of Q, until recently, were most often made at frequencies much higher than those measured by seismologists for waves propagating through the earth. Recent advances in seismic station distribution and quality, as well as in methodology at both high and low fequencies, have greatly improved the quality of observational data available to seismologists from global stations. Concurrent advances have been made in measuring Q using laboratory samples at frequencies that pertain to the earth and in theoretical understanding of seismic wave attenuation. Papers of this volume present new information on Q in the earth from several perspectives: methodology, results from global and regional observations of both body and surface waves, laboratory measurements, and theoretical understanding. The editors believe that we have reached a new threshold in Q studies and that advances in data quality and methodology will spur increased interest in this difficult, but interesting field.

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Since its inception in 1966, the series of numbered volumes known as Semiconductors and Semimetals has distinguished itself through the careful selection of well-known authors, editors, and contributors. The Willardson and Beer series, as it is widely known, has succeeded in producing numerous landmark volumes and chapters. Not only did many of these volumes make an impact at the time of their publication, but they continue to be well-cited years after their original release. Recently, Professor Eicke R. Weber of the University of California at Berkeley joined as a co-editor of the series. Professor Weber, a well-known expert in the field of semiconductor materials, will further contribute to continuing the series' tradition of publishing timely, highly relevant, and long-impacting volumes. Some of the recent volumes, such as Hydrogen in Semiconductors, Imperfections in III/V Materials, Epitaxial Microstructures, High-Speed Heterostructure Devices, Oxygen in Silicon, and others promise that this tradition will be maintained and even expanded.

Reflecting the truly interdisciplinary nature of the field that the series covers, the volumes in Semiconductors and Semimetals have been and will continue to be of great interest to physicists, chemists, materials scientists, and device engineers in modern industry.

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If I could give this less than one star, I would do it.

Disjointed Attempt at Chick Lit

Boring

Definately a Royal Flush!

Sharp Wit and Believable Characters

Girls' Poker Night
Jill A. Davis
Manufacturer: Ballantine Books
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Mass Market Paperback

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ASIN: 0345469674
Release Date: 2004-02-03

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Ruby Capote, the narrator of Girls' Poker Night, is your quintessential New York cynic. This persona serves her just fine in her job as a humor columnist; she's unafraid to write the most humiliating details about herself or her friends, because she truly doesn't care. But over the course of a year or so of Wednesday night poker parties with her pals, Ruby is forced to face her past--especially her sorrow over her father, who committed suicide after he left Ruby's mother. Meanwhile, Ruby comes to terms with her budding feelings for Michael, the editor of her newspaper, who, in a neat twist, turns out to be estranged from his only child (shades of Ruby's lost father). Davis, a former writer for The Late Show, does a fine job of maintaining Ruby's sharp humor while leading her through a minefield of emotional discovery. --Claire Dederer

Book Description

Dissatisfied both with writing a “Single Girl on the Edge/Ledge/Verge” column and with her boyfriend, Ruby Capote sends her best columns and a six-pack of beer to the editor of The New York News and lands herself a job in the big city. There, Ruby undertakes the venerable tradition of Poker Night—a way (as men have always known) to eat, drink, smoke, analyze, interrupt one another, share stories, and, most of all, raise the stakes. When Ruby falls for her boss, though, all bets are off. . . .

Download Description

Dissatisfied both with writing a "Single Girl on the Edge/Ledge/Verge" lifestyle column and with her boyfriend (who has a name for his car and compulsively collects plastic bread ties), Ruby Capote sends her best columns and a six-pack of beer to the editor of The New York News and lands herself a new job in a new city.

In New York, Ruby undertakes the venerable tradition of Poker Night -- a way (as men have always known) to eat, drink, smoke, analyze, interrupt one another, share stories, and, most of all, raise the stakes. There's Skorka, model by profession, homewrecker by vocation; Jenn, willing to cross county lines for true love; Danielle, recently divorced, seducer of at least one father/son combo in her quest to make up for perceived "missed opportunities."

When Ruby falls for her boss, Michael, all bets are off. He's a challenge. He's her editor. And he wants her to stop being quippy and clever and become the writer -- and the woman -- he knows she can be. Adding to Ruby's uncertainty is his amazing yet ambiguous kiss in the elevator, and the enjoyably torturous impasse of he-loves-me, he-loves-me-not.

What happens when you realize that Mr. Right has his own unresolved past? Where does that leave the future you envisioned? Ruby knows that happy endings aren't for cowards, and she hasn't lost hope that there are risks worth taking. As smart as it is laugh-out-loud funny, Girls' Poker Night is a twenty-first-century His Girl Friday and a re-freshingly upbeat look at friendship, work, and love.

"Girls' Poker Night is blithe, engaging, off-the-wall funny."
   JOAN DIDION

"Jill Davis's Girls' Poker Night is every man's worst nightmare -- a candid look at how the other half thinks and feels. Ruby Capote is a smart, neurotic, maddening heroine against whom very few male poker players would stand a chance. I certainly hope this is fiction."
   JAY McINERNEY, AUTHOR OF BRIGHT LIGHTS, BIG CITY AND MODEL BEHAVIOR

"Jill Davis has the voice of your very best friend -- funny, irreverent, gossipy, deliciously nasty but always compassionate. Just pour yourself a drink, sit back, and listen to her rant hilariously about her journey to romance and maturity."
   ELIZABETH GILBERT, AUTHOR OF PILGRIMS AND STERN MEN

"Funny, fast-moving, and disarmingly honest, Girls' Poker Night, to use a Hollywood construct, is an American Bridget Jones meets Sex and the City, with a soulful smidgen of Bright Lights, Big City."
   MARK O'DONNELL, AUTHOR OF GETTING OVER HOMER AND LET NOTHING YOU DISMAY

"Ruby Capote, the sparkling jewel at the center of Jill A. Davis's brilliant debut, is wise, witty, and achingly vulnerable in the tradition of the fabulous dames of screwball comedy. I loved her and you will too!"
    ADRIANA TRIGIANI, AUTHOR OF BIG STONE GAP AND LUCIA, LUCIA

"Jill Davis captures exactly what it feels like to be a single woman on the verge of falling in love; what it feels like to risk everything and cross the line from distrust to trust, from not believing to believing. Girls' Poker Night is fu

Customer Reviews:

If I could give this less than one star, I would do it........2007-09-17

This book was HORRIBLE! 227 pages of a whining, disturbed, whining, misguided, whining, unsympathetic complainer for a main character, who subsequently is the ONLY character in the book who's given any "depth" at all. And did I mention that she whines?
What a waste of space!
OK, I get it - You have issues that stem from childhood and you run from relationships. Well kids, I just summed up the ONLY thread of what could be conceived as "plotline" in the entire novel. It was just awful! So awful, that I have absolutely no plotline to really pick apart in this review because the whole novel is bits and pieces thrown together in a hodge-podge that's MEANT to be a story.
It's ONLY saving grace is that it was a fairly quick read. So it's only 1 day of my life that I won't get back instead of more... Honestly, I'm SO ANGRY with myself for actually letting myself finish this thing, thinking, "Well, it's gotta get better, right?"
Take my word for it, kids - STAY AWAY! It's TRASH!!!

Disjointed Attempt at Chick Lit.......2006-10-22

Ruby lands a job in New York to escape a blah relationship in Boston. Her relationships and insecurities provide fodder for her column, "Single Girl on the Edge/Ledge/Verge." Her attraction to the editor and her poker nights with her girlfriends set up some funny scenes.
The book reads like a series of columns scotch taped together. Maybe that's the intent, but it just feels choppy. The women friends are mere caricatures and Ruby is frustratingly inept in pursuing her romantic interest.

Boring.......2006-09-05

Boring, meandering story line and under developed characters. I did not find this book funny but instead just found it tedious. There were too many characters for the story line and none of them were interesting or had any depth. I found myself losing tack of who was who among the supporting characters, and I never get a real sense of who the main character was.

Definately a Royal Flush!.......2006-07-19

I loved this book. It is a laugh out loud you have to share with the girls book. I have passed it around to any friend that enjoys a good read. It is an easy quick read! You will want to read it over and over

Sharp Wit and Believable Characters.......2006-04-18

In Girl's Poker Night, heroine Ruby Capote is a single girl who just can't be serious about anything... her job, her boyfriend, her past. She writes for a gossip column in which she dishes unselfconciously about herself and her friends, and yet when asked a direct question about herself she can't seem to find an answer. Author Jill Davis did a good job of making Capote like you and me, a girl just trying to get ahead in the world. She does this with a unique quick witted writing style in short little chapters that will lure you into reading more.

From the author of The Difference Now, A New Dish, and At the Coffee Shop.

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Girl's Poker Night
Jill A. Davis
Manufacturer: Random House
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
ASIN: B000JZN3YG

Girls' Poker Night: A Novel of High Stakes

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Girls' Poker Night: A Novel of High Stakes
Jill; Davis, Jill A. Davis
Manufacturer: Ballantine Books
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
ASIN: B000NY1YZS

The Poker Pack : For the Girls' Night Out

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The Poker Pack : For the Girls' Night Out
Jane Barnstuble
Manufacturer: Barron''s Educational Series
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 0764178369

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Poker has graduated from the sometimes seedy world of back rooms clouded with cigar smoke and inhabited by tough, hard-bitten gamblers. Today's poker renaissance, boosted by the Internet and TV, has entered millions of ordinary households—and it will surprise nobody that contemporary women are not merely flocking to play the game, but are playing poker with all the skill and daring of veteran male card experts. One of the first things that poker beginners learn is that the thrill of the game extends beyond the risk of winning or losing considerable amounts of money. They quickly find that playing for pennies, matchsticks, or plastic chips can become just as compelling as playing for hard cash. Here's an attractive set to introduce poker to those fair ladies who haven't yet learned the game. It includes a color illustrated book that sets down the basic rules, game variations, and strategies. It also offers helpful notes on poker psychology and etiquette. Included with the book is a deck of playing cards, a set of poker chips, a scoring pad, and a pencil. Designed especially for girls, here is a great introduction to the world's most popular card game.

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Girls' Night Poker Kit (Potter Style)
Potter Style
Manufacturer: Potter Style
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0307236668

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Girls' Poker Night: A Novel
Jill Davis
Manufacturer: Ballantine Books
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
ASIN: B000OWDIGW

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