The Message of the Markets: How Financial Markets Foretell the Future--and How You Can Profit from Their Guidance

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CNBC's Ron Insana is one of the founding fathers of TV biz-news punditry, and his analytical strength and fondness for puns do not desert him in The Message of the Markets, the followup to his book Traders' Tales: A Chronicle of Wall Street Myths, Legends, and Outright Lies. But despite his trademark perky tone (the section on the Gulf War is titled, "Oil's Well That Ends Well"), Insana writes to fulfill an extremely serious ambition: he wants you to learn to use the fluctuations of the financial markets to actually predict the future.

He's not kidding. Insana insists that the market leaves coded messages, "breadcrumbs on the road to the gingerbread house." With a few charts and a bit of technical explanation, he shows how you could have profited in the Great Salad Oil Swindle of 1963, the crash of 1987, the Asian crisis of 1997, and other riveting fiscal dramas. Insana makes his points convincingly. There's his anecdote about President Kennedy's assassination, when the market began to tank before the news got out. One broker sparked the selloff, saying it "had something to do with the president." The possibly apocryphal explanation: Disappointed dealers at a Dallas brokerage house go back to their office when JFK's parade is halted without explanation. Though nobody suspects the truth, their manager can think of no bullish reasons such a parade would be cancelled, only bearish ones, so he sells early and saves big.

While this story remains unverified, Insana has plenty of verified market-message examples: the 1990 oil spike that heralded Saddam Hussein's Kuwait invasion two months early, the Thai baht crisis that presaged the turning of Asia's tigers into whipped kittens, and the 1993 Dow Jones Utility Average warning preceding the 1994 bond crash. A notable anecdote: one trader deduced a 1980s spat on the border of Egypt and Libya based strictly on upticks in U.S. based oil companies and defense stocks and dips in two international oil stocks and a designer-jeans company dependent on Egyptian cotton.

Can you really predict Greenspan by reading Insana's book? Or is it all just Monday morning quarterbacking? Hard to say. But Insana's book is as fun as the investment game itself. --Tim Appelo END

Book Description

Can the financial markets really foretell the future?

According to CNBC's veteran market watcher, Ron Insana, they can and they do.

Every day the world's markets are speaking--shouting, really--boldly predicting the future. In fact, they are reflecting information not yet revealed to the general public: events as dramatic as the outcome of a war, as tragic as a nuclear accident in some distant part of the globe, or as mundane yet vitally important as the future and still secret decisions of the Federal Reserve.

In order to understand what the markets are saying, you have to know how to listen to and interpret the messages they are sending. This is the first book to show readers how to understand the signals put out by the markets, and how to use that information to advantage in their lives.

Since ancient times, writes Insana, investors and merchants have met to buy and sell goods--and to exchange information and gossip. This information is reflected in the prices charged for those goods, whether it is news of war in a farflung region that will cut off the world's gold supply or a crop failure that will make wheat scarce.

Now skip to the present day, where the proxies for goods and services--tradable securities--act in exactly the same fashion. From the price of oil to foreign-currency fluctuations, from the price of a stock to the interest rate offered on a bond, the financial markets provide clues to events great and small. For example, Insana documents howthe stock market sent a shudder down Wall Street several moments before President John F. Kennedy was killed in Dallasthe crude oil market tipped off the world that a war was imminent between Iraq, Kuwait, and the United States--and then predicted a quick victorythe wheat market told the West about the seriousness of the Chernobyl nuclear accident days before official word of the meltdowna tiny currency known as the Thai baht warned the global markets that the Asian economic crisis was imminent and potentially devastating.

In the world of finance, Insana reveals howthe yield curve gives a one-year advance warning of an impending recessiona little-known futures contract is capable of predicting with great precision what the Federal Reserve will do to interest rates weeks before the Fed makes its decision

At a more personal level, Insana shows how individuals who heed the warnings of the markets will make better personal decisions regardinginvestments mortgages and loans real estate purchases career choices and much more

Whether you are an investor, a market buff, or are simply interested in making better financial decisions, the markets are speaking to you in a very relevant and personal way. Let Ron Insana be your guide and interpreter to understanding the message of the markets.

Customer Reviews:

The market is the message.......2004-03-03

CNBC anchor Ron Insana's second book on the stock market, "The Message of the Markets," follows "Traders' Tales" in 1996, and does an excellent job of selling you on the idea that the market does send signals for anyone who's interested in looking for them. Using Insana's words, "Many times the prices of stocks, bonds, and commodities accurately anticipate or forecast future events. "But what is a "market?" If a market is where buyers and sellers come together and agree to exchange assets - stocks, bonds, futures, options, wheat, oil, gold, cloth, Beanie Babies, guns, drugs, etc., then the "message" of the market has to be the PRICE resulting from that exchange. That price level conveys enough information that if you know what you are looking for, you will be able to anticipate future events solely on the basis of price and its trend. Why? Because there is what Insana calls "smart money" and "dumb money."Smart money belongs to insiders, those closest to the action who see and know what is happening. They act on their knowledge, leaving their tell-tale footprints of transaction prices for all to see. Then there are the outsiders; the ones who wake up one morning and read about something that just happened, realize that it is significant, and decide to catch the obvious trend already in progress, invariably buying from those same insiders who got in months ago anticipating exactly that outcome. What Insana doesn't say is that without smart money to indicate the way, all markets would be chaotic, panic-driven price spikes in either direction as everybody tried to react to the same thing at the same time. He is particularly correct when he warns to watch out for the price move "with no apparent reason." It can signal momentous events on the horizon.The real message of the book thus becomes that if you learn to track where the "smart money" is going, then in addition to profiting along with the insiders on the various price moves, you can also make more intelligent business, investment, and career decisions. Insana uses the interest rate yield curve as well as popular averages to predict the onset of recessions; market internals (Advance/Decline Line, diverging Dow Jones Averages, etc.) to predict the stock market; and commodity price movements to predict geopolitical events.
He gives industry/sector group relative strength rotation credit for frequently predicting the economy's strengths and weaknesses and cites ways in which this can be used in selecting career paths as well as suggesting business trends. He uses commodity price moves as signals that foretell future events such as Chernobyl, the Gulf War, the Egypt-Libya potential war, and other geopolitical upheavals. However, I believe he makes too much of the market selling off just prior to the announcement that JFK had been shot. There is a story about a certain well-known network newscaster in Dallas making the call back to his NY newsroom, then ripping the pay phone out of the wall to keep other reporters from using it to get to their newsrooms. So there may have been real reasons for the news delay. Anyway, the market was shut down with the Dow suffering only a 3% decline. After remaining closed one additional day, the market continued its upward climb for the next 3 years. While a member of the Pacific Stock Exchange, I witnessed the same momentary "front-running" when Reagan was shot on March 30, 1981. On that day something "felt" amiss when we suddenly got hit will an avalanche of sell orders. Minutes later, the news tape announced that the president had been shot. But like in the Kennedy situation, the market dipped momentarily, then continued its rally. In these two cases, the message was inconsequential, financially speaking. After giving numerous examples of what market signals are and how they've fared over the years, Insana asks his most thought-provoking question: "So why was it that most investors, all the world's politicians...failed to notice trouble signs on the horizon? Once again, it was the failure of many observers to pay attention to the market's ominous message." The implication being that the rain clouds were forming but nobody took notice. The answer is simple yet unsatisfying: As long as we listen to what "they" say instead of watching what "they" do, we will always fall victim to "their" market. What Insana is making a case for is a market discipline termed Technical Analysis. It looks at market action, valuing above all else the constant interplay between the supply and demand for a any tradable entity, and considers Fundamental Analysis (Wall Street research) as so much hot air. It is not a particularly popular stance, but it is much closer to allying yourself with reality than anything else.

A book on history, not investing.......2001-08-24

Ron Insana's The Message of the Markets is an interesting read of financial market history. His thesis is that movements in the financial markets can foretell future events, but he ignores all those times the markets reacted irrationally. This book cannot make you a better investor, but it is one person's interesting perspective of history.

A Disappointment.......2001-05-23

I have long liked Ron Insana on CNBC. Based on my respect for his thinking and well reasoned commentaries on the air, I bought his book on blind faith.

With much anticipation I settled in to gain a better understanding of the markets. Unfortunately, the book didn't live up to its title. I forced myself to finish the book thinking that eventually I would get "the message."

At times I became lost in the text. Long paragraphs led to one sentence paragraphs which did not seem to be part of any natural progression. Charts sometimes did not seem to match the points that they were to help illustrate. While I am anything but an editor, I had the feeling that more editing might have helped.

Bottom line: this book is not a "keeper" for my future reference.

Good point - wrong emphasis in presentation.......2001-05-01

This is a well-informed and very readable book on the informational value of the financial markets. However, this is not a how-to book on stock picking. What Mr Insana is concerned with in this book is not so much what price movements can tell us about an individual stock, but the macro information that the financial markets can tell us about the economy, geopolitics, major news events etc. There's almost no advice on individual stock picking based on price movements (too noisy), but there are advices on how to choose a job, time the purchase of a new home, move cash in and out of the market etc. based on the message of the markets.

In retrospect, some of the messages from the markets identified in the book are quite prescient. A good example is the rapid deterioration in the A/D line at the height of the Internet bubble. Of course that phenonmenon did not go unnoticed by the market pros. I clearly remember numerous analysts assuring viewers on CNBC that the stock market was not over-valued (and therefore in no danger of collapsing) because so many stocks were in the doldrums!

The book was filled with anecdotes about how major economic and geopolitical events (from Fed rate cuts to border wars between Egypt and Libya) are foreshadowed by unexplained market movements. Had Mr. Insana focused on the rationale behind these movements his argument would've been a lot more convincing. Instead, the book had a tendency to ascribe a sort of magical, oracular power to the market and the "smart money" that makes the market. Of course the real reason is a lot more mundane. Sometimes it's rampant insider trading (as in the oil futures mkt). At other times anyone who has bothered to read a newspaper would have seen it coming from a mile away. A good example is the collapse of the Thai baht. Any regular reader of the Far Eastern Economic Review would not have needed the markets to send a msg - for months the magazine was filled with dire warnings of imminent collapse in its op-ed pages.

Another issue that Mr. Insana did not address is the very important question of how to separate the signal from the noise emanating from the market 24 hours a day. As someone who had (foolishly) dabbled in the futures market, I know first hand that wild swings in the market can be triggered but nothing more dramatic than a 1/2-hr T-storm in downtown Chicago. (I always susepct that if I wait at a 2nd fl. window at the CBOT and sprinkle water on the head of a particular trader as he leaves the building, I can make a killing in soybeans.) In the days of old when the market was almost the exclusive domain of the Smart Money in the know, the msg. of the mkts was probably a lot more reliable than today, when the unwashed masses can steamroll the smart money based on the most ludicrous rumor posted on Pump-n-dump.com. How to separate the grains from the chaff is something we'll have to leave to another CNBC author.

BTW, there really is a web site called pumpanddump.com.

A piece of the puzzle unveiled.......2001-03-24

Many underestimate the value the news can have on their investment strategies. Insana's research demonstrates the usefulness of correctly interpreting and acting upon the news. This reinforces the somewhat shorter-term "buy the rumor; sell the news" experiences my partner and I have had and discuss in our book "How to Start Day Trading Futures, Options, and Indices." Nothing occurs in a vacuum--not the behavior of the market nor that of other investment vehicles. Insana's book points this out in a easy to read, informative manner.

The Message of the Markets: How Financial Markets Foretell the Future--And How You Can Profit from Their Guidance

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The Message of the Markets: How Financial Markets Foretell the Future--And How You Can Profit from Their Guidance
Ron Insana
Manufacturer: Collins
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
ASIN: B000OFE0V6

Book Description

This book constitutes the thoroughly refereed post-conference proceedings of the Third International Conference on Financial Cryptography, FC'99, held in Anguilla, British West Indies in February 1999.The 19 revised full papers presented were carefully reviewed for inclusion in the book. The papers are organized in sections on electronic commerce, anonymity control, fraud management, public-key certificates, steganography, content distribution, anonymity mechanisms, auctions and markets, and distributed cryptography.

Book Description

From the cliffs of Big Sur to the dunes at Cape Hatteras, from the bogs of the Boundary Waters to the deserts of the Rio Grande, the landscape of America has shaped us into the people we are. Not only is it central to ecological health and essential to the economy, it has helped form our culture and serves as a basis of national pride. The heart of America lies in the rock and soil, the mountains and the plains that surround us.

In this illuminating portrait of America at the threshold of the new millennium, author Tim Palmer explores and assesses the landscape of the United States-both timeless wonders of natural beauty and lost places scarred by human exploitation. He takes the reader on an informative and inspirational tour of our most vital landscapes, including mountains, forests, grasslands, deserts, rivers, lakes, wetlands, and seashores. He introduces us to the basic geography and ecological value of each landscape, describes historical patterns of land use, considers the most serious threats, and discusses what is being done to protect the landscape for future generations. Throughout, he instills a deeper understanding of the importance of the land, a sense of outrage at the damage that has been done, and a feeling of hope that those working to correct past abuses will succeed.

Weaving together geographical, historical, and ecological information and insights, Palmer draws on thirty years of professional experience as a writer, photographer, conservationist, planner, landscape architect, and veteran traveler to present a fresh look at the past, present, and future of our land.

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Book Description

This digital document is an article from Countryside & Small Stock Journal, published by Countryside Publications Ltd. on September 1, 2002. The length of the article is 461 words. The page length shown above is based on a typical 300-word page. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Digital Locker immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.

Citation Details
Title: Last time we asked: what's your favorite building project? Our mailbox was overflowing! Due to space limitations, we'll share other ideas in future issues. (Question of the month).
Author: Judith M. Saul
Publication: Countryside & Small Stock Journal (Magazine/Journal)
Date: September 1, 2002
Publisher: Countryside Publications Ltd.
Volume: 86 Issue: 5 Page: 46(1)

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Our town is booming: come join the crowd! Can this be a homesteader talking? Yes - and it might be the wave of the future ....(Place): An article from: Countryside & Small Stock Journal

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Our town is booming: come join the crowd! Can this be a homesteader talking? Yes - and it might be the wave of the future ....(Place): An article from: Countryside & Small Stock Journal
Donna Cooper
Manufacturer: Countryside Publications Ltd.
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Digital

Ecotourism | Specialty Travel | Travel | Subjects | Books

General | Travel | Subjects | Books

Book Description

This digital document is an article from Countryside & Small Stock Journal, published by Countryside Publications Ltd. on November 1, 1996. The length of the article is 846 words. The page length shown above is based on a typical 300-word page. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Digital Locker immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.

From the supplier: Pahrump, NV is in the southern tip of the state. A homesteader describes her area and invites other homesteaders to come and live there. She is seeking a balance between country people and homesteaders to prevent city people from developing the place into a catch basin of urban sprawl.

Citation Details
Title: Our town is booming: come join the crowd! Can this be a homesteader talking? Yes - and it might be the wave of the future ....(Place)
Author: Donna Cooper
Publication: Countryside & Small Stock Journal (Magazine/Journal)
Date: November 1, 1996
Publisher: Countryside Publications Ltd.
Volume: v80 Issue: n6 Page: p27(1)

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What Future for Our Countryside? a Rural Development Policy

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What Future for Our Countryside? a Rural Development Policy

Manufacturer: Organization for Economic Cooperation & Devel
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

Economic Policy & Development | Economics | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books

General | Popular Economics | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books

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General | Reference | Subjects | Books
ASIN: 9264138080

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Manufacturer: Lark Books
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

Chemistry | Science, Nature & How It Works | Children's Books | Subjects | Books
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General | Ages 9-12 | Children's Books | Subjects | Books
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The start to a brand-new children's series puts the fun back in science with a little fizz, foam, and chemistry magic. What could be more entertaining than grossing out parents with a homemade batch of disgusting runny slime? Or making miniature cave stalactites and stalagmites out of saturated salt solutions and string? These 50 irresistible experiments, explained in terms that children will both understand and appreciate, show just how enjoyable science can be--and that's definitely cool. Ages 8 and up.

Customer Reviews:

One of the better books of this type.......2006-05-22

I own several books on science fun for kids. I consider this one of the better ones for ages 9-14. Although there are some ideas carried through several pages, almost every activity stands on its own. Each concoction is presented on its own page with a catchy title like "Soda Slobber" and sections headed "What You Need," "What You Do," and "Why It Works." I liked the scientific explanations--very clear and readable. There are also several one-page articles like "What Makes Your Pop POP" that go into more detailed explanations of the chemistry behind the concoctions. The concoctions mostly consist of experiments with acid/base reactions, air pressure, liquid densities, Ph indicators, and carbonation, plus recipes for polymers, crystals, paint and invisible ink. The text stands on its own; the kid-friendly illustrations are merely decorative. Some recipes do require ingredients that are not readily available every house, such as citric acid or tincture of iodine, but the book mentions in general terms whether they can be purchased in a drugstore or grocery store. A lot of the experiments involve things that splash or are otherwise very messy, but the reader is cautioned to do them outside. I am looking forward to using the geyser made from soda pop and lifesavers with my day camp geology classes--I expect it to be a highlight of the class. And although many of the activities can be found in other books (is there a kids' chemistry book anywhere that does NOT tell how to make slime, create a baking soda volcano, or separate the colors that make up black ink?), the geyser, the Air Freshener Bubbles (made with vanilla extract), and Tie Be Gone (where you dissolve a piece of old clothing) are three activities that I do not recall seeing in other books.

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This new volume of the highly respected Physics of Thin Films Serial discusses inhomogeneity in real films and surfaces. The volume, guest-edited by K. Vedam, follows the growth of thin films both from the surface of the substrate, and from the atomic level, layer by layer. The text features coverage of Real-Time Spectroscopic Ellipsometry (RTSE) and Reflectance Anisotropy (RA), two major breakthrough optical techniques used to characterize real time and insitu films and surfaces. In six insightful chapters, the contributors assess the impact of these techniques, their strengths and limitations, and their potential for further development.

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A fresh and funny take on the perils of dating from a gifted new African-American writer.

Monica is a girl whose standards have hit rock bottom. Having dated so many loosers, she doesn't even care that her latest, Mark, has some baggage -- baggage that has a name and face and harnesses her every chance she gets. But hey, everyone has a skeleton in the closet, right? Could he be the one, imperfections aside? Will she bother to press the issue? Should she just bolt for the door and forget the whole thing? Before she can decide, things get complicated when she meets a guy who encompasses everything she looks for in a man. There's just one problem: he lives in another country.

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Customer Reviews:

Bravo!.......2005-04-03

I loved this book. I recently read all three of Ms. Handfield's novels, Mirror, Mirror, Six Dark Knights and now My Diet Starts Tomorrow and found all three completely different from one another. Although I tend to shy away from the same old relationship books, this novel was hilarious. Monica was a character I could relate to and I found myself thinking she was my long lost twin sister. The bad relationships she found herself in reminded me of myself. It was told in a humorous voice that made be feel just a little bit better about what I had to go through too. Kudos on a job well done. I plan to pass the book on to all of my friends or anyone that's been in a bad relationship and is at the point where they can laugh about it. I know I did!

loved it!.......2005-01-29

so, saturday night rolls around and finds me by the fireplace with a class of white zin, a tasty novel called My Diet Starts Tomorrow, and 60lbs of ungraded research papers-- what to do, what to do?! you do the math on this one! those research papers had to wait while i sipped my wine and read this entertaining novel. as a marylander, i especially appreciated all of the local references as this serial dater ran into more and more relationship disasters. i even appreciated the metaphor of dieting in this hip and contemporary novel. but, alas, the fun ended, and i still have 60lbs of ungraded research papers to deal with! unless i can get a sequel from the author-- please??!!
J Marie Darden- author of Enemy Fields www.jmariedarden.com

How Refreshing.......2004-08-02

YOu may think this is another book about the funny stories of dating. You are right! This story is funny but is told in such a "REAL" way that you feel you right there watching the entire thing. There are no slow points and the characters are well developed. I enjoyed the plot. I enjoyed the storyline from beginning to end. I look forward to more books from this author. WHAT A DEBUT!

Definite pageturner.......2004-07-20

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Loved It!.......2004-01-19

The book was good, nah great! A definite page turner. I would have given it 5 stars but I reserve that for books I read in a day. As for "My Diet Starts Tomorrow", it was really close. I love the way the characters were developed and the entire time I thought I was reading a seasoned author's work, i.e. EJD...this book put me in the mind of his work. I've already pre-ordered "Mirror, Mirror" and if she keeps coming with the move 'em type stories...she may quite easily join my favorite authors list! Keep it up Laurel!! You already have a fan!

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