Russia 2010: and What It Means for the World

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Russia 2010=Russia 2004?

A book giving perspective

Russia's Future -- In Retrospect

Russia 2010: and What It Means for the World
Daniel Yergin
Manufacturer: Random House
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

Former Soviet Republics & Siberia | Europe | History | Subjects | Books
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ASIN: 0679429956
Release Date: 1993-11-22

Book Description

2010: Russia disintegrates as its frontier regions rebel or drift into the orbit of neighboring countries. 2010: Russia is invigorated by an economic chudo -- "miracle" -- that turns it into a thriving exemplar of the free market. 2010: Russia becomes a grim military dictatorship, bent on expansion.

This brilliant and visionary book, which is based on a confidential report by the international consulting firm CERA, offers several persuasively detailed scenarios of Russia's future. Using the management technique of "scenario planning" and drawing on an extensive knowledge of Russia's political and economic history, Daniel Yergin and Thane Gustafson have produced a study that is already shaping the investment strategies of major corporations and that will become an essential text in the policy debates about the next century. Russia 2010 captures in a timely way the changes shaking Russia and the former Soviet Union after Communism. The result is one of those rare books that not only predict the future but have the power to change it.

From the Trade Paperback edition.

Customer Reviews:

Russia 2010=Russia 2004?.......2004-09-20

Written in 1993, it is fascinating to re-read "Russia 2010" today, 11 years later -- but still 6 years before the ultimate forecast date of the title -- to see how Dan Yergin and Thane Gustafson's predictions are doing. Given the events of recent months, with the school massacre in southern Russia and other terrorist actions, the ongoing brutal war in Chechnya, the continued clampdown on freedom of the press and civil society in Russia, the prosecution/persecution of leading business moguls (specifically, Mikhail Khodorkovsky), and President Putin's dramatic moves to increase his power, Russia should definitely be getting a lot more attention than most people have been giving it. Which makes the analysis of "Russia 2010" more relevant than ever.

Most importantely, what Yergin and Gustafson did in "Russia 2010" was NOT to make absolute forecasts or to simply (and mindlessly) extrapolate from the situation at the time, but instead to apply powerful "scenario planning" techniques to thinking through the most likely futures for Russia. Back in 1993, the authors laid out four main scenarios: 1) "muddling down;" 2) the "Two-Headed Eagle;" 3) "Time of Troubles;" and 4) "Chudo" (economic miracle). How did the authors do?

Today, in 2004, we can confidently conclude that #4 was wrong -- there has been no Russian economic miracle, although oil prices have certainly helped Russia recover from the post-Soviet low point of the early- to mid-1990s. It also turns out that #1, "muddling down," the scenario that came closest to simply extrapolating from the existing situation at the time (as most forecasters erroneously do) was somewhat off the mark in the long run, although its predictions of a "relatively free atmosphere" and "weak Russian central government" did hold true for a few years at least. Scenario #3 is interesting, as it accurately anticipates separatist tendencies (although not specifically mentioning Chechnya) and the reaction of the "Russian Bear" to reassert itself. To some extent, that's exactly what we see today.

It is Scenario #4 (the "Two-Headed Eagle"), however, that appears to have hit the nail squarely - almost eerily so -- on the head. In "Russia 2010," Yergin and Gustafson posit that an attempted assassination on the Russian President by a "petty hoodlum"/mafia type "from the north Caucasus" leads to: a) Russian military action in that unnamed north Caucasus republic; b) a popular call for a crackdown on "the mafia, on corruption, and the private economy, which are all rolled into one in many people's minds;" c) the central government taking advantage of this situation to consolidate its own power, rein in the provinces, strengthen the executive over the legislative branch, reassert its control over natural resource exports; and d) an "ambivalent" and half-hearted Western reaction to these moves. Sound familiar? It should, because Scenario #4 -- the "premature reconstitution of a strong state" -- is almost exactly what we're seeing right now in Russia.

What Yergin and Gustafson have done, among other things, is to have demonstrated the tremendous value of "scenario planning" -- rigorously thinking through possible future paths as opposed to mindlessly extrapolating from the present. Although the latter course of action may be the easier (and lazier) way of trying to predict the future, it is also the least helpful and least accurate. Why would we think the future would be just like the present and recent past? The simple answer? Failure of imagination, and the lack of courage to go out on a limb and stand out from the herd. As Yergin and Gustafson point out, the normal "extrapolate from the current situation" forecasting methodology failed us miserably during the past few decades, missing most of the major turning points of those years. For instance, just about nobody managed to predict the Iranian Revolution, the collapse of the Soviet Union, the rise of Al Qaeda, 9/11, the course of oil prices from 1973 to now, or just about anything else during that period. Yergin and Gustafson, however, by spending some time and effort to actually think through possible scenarios, hit the nail on the head regarding the future of Russia in one of their four posited "scenarios" -- with two of the three others having large elements of truth as well. True, it's not 2010 yet, but as of September 2004, Yergin and Gustafson are looking pretty darned smart!

A book giving perspective.......2004-01-19

Written in 1993, this book is still worth of reading today. Actually, it is more interesting to read today because some of the uncertainties in Russia back then had worked themselves out. The book was well structured and followed clear themes. The scenarios were plausible. I especially enjoyed the chapter on Russian transition from a market economy to a market one.

Russia's Future -- In Retrospect.......2000-01-31

Yergin and Gustafson present a series of three conceivable roads of reform along which Russia may travel between 1994 and 2010. The first scenario, "Muddling Down," which precedes all other roads in their model, is described as "the scenario that extends the present" (pg. 140). It is characterized by a weak central government and a lack of legal infrastructure. The three roads from this point are "Two-Headed Eagle" (the return of a strong state composed of both new and old elites), "Time of Troubles" (chaos and unprecedented decentralization inevitably leading to restrictive nationalism with overtones), and "Chudo" (the economic miracle, compared with both Germany during the 1950's and with Alice in Wonderland). Regardless of the path taken, the authors believe that the outcome will be the same: by 2010 "a capitalist Russia seems almost certain" (pg. 300).

As I write this review, Russia is now six years further along its path than it was when the authors penned their book. Naturally, the material in this book is dated. The authors could have done a better job in making this book more accessible to a future audience -- especially that of a future in which none of these scenarios seem to be taking shape as expected. I would not rule out the possibility that some of the events discussed could still come to pass, but not within the timeframe proposed. For example, in one scenario, Yeltsin steps down in 1996 due to poor health. Looking back, he remained in power for another four years after that, despite heart surgery and repeated ailments. Could that particular scenario still be valid in the future? That depends on many other factors, of course.

In their discussions on Russia's policy towards non-Russians (at home and in the Near Abroad), the authors overplayed the potential for problems with Ukrainians and underplayed the potential for problems with Chechens and other non-Russians to the south. The first Russo-Chechen conflict broke out at about the same time that this book was updated and revised. Yet even before that, one could have foreseen the potential for conflict in the Caucasus. The Summer 1993 issue of Foreign Affairs featured an article by Samuel Huntington entitled, "The Clash of Civilizations?" Huntington's influential article proposed that armed conflicts tend to occur along fault lines between civilizations. A prime example of such a fault line is Yugoslavia, where Islamic, Western, and Slavic civilizations come together at one point. By this rationale, the Caucasus and Central Asia are also fault lines. Ukraine, however, is not a fault line. Despite Ukrainians' dislike of decades of rule by Moscow, Ukrainians and Russians have too much in common for a serious rift to occur. After all, America overcame its antipathy towards its former ruler to become England's greatest ally.

Overall, I would recommend this book with a cautionary note to the reader that the book is not as useful now as it might have been half a decade ago. That being said, the book does still hold water with respect to Russia's future and has certainly retained its value as an academic exercise in scenario-building.

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RUSSIA 2010 AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE WORLD: THE CERA REPORT.
Daniel and Thane Gustafson. Yergin
Manufacturer: Publisher Unknown
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover
ASIN: B000WAOUEU

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Russia 2010 and What It Means for the World
Daniel (et al) Yergin
Manufacturer: Vintage
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
ASIN: B000O67W88

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Russia 2010: And What It Means for the World (CERA Report)
Daniel; Gustafson, Thane; Cambridge Energy Yergin
Manufacturer: Vintage Books
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
ASIN: B000SB9KVG

Book Description

Supervision is an essential constituent of analytic and psychotherapy training and a crucial part of ongoing professional development for all practitioners. In spite of this, little formal theory about supervision has been developed and, for the most part, learning to supervise has progressed using a simple apprenticeship model. Supervising and Being Supervised aims to rectify this situation. The authors draw together contributions from a number of experienced Jungian analysts who supervise to explore key aspects of the supervisory experience with the aim of developing a theory for analytically-based work.

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Consultant and long-time FDA food and dietary supplement labeling expert James Summers offers a comprehensive guide to understanding and complying with the dietary supplement labeling requirements of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in Dietary Supplement Labeling Compliance Review, Third Edition.Available in book or searchable CD-ROM (view CD-ROM version) formats, this updated review is composed of three essential parts:Sections I through V consist of the introduction and how-to information.Sections VI through IX consist of the compliance step-by-step review procedure (in the form of questions and responses,) and other labeling requirements.Sections X through XV consist of guidance and information for decision making. Clearly illustrated with dozens of charts, sample label panels, and supplement facts boxes, this manual is the straightforward, no-nonsense tool both inexperienced and experienced dietary supplement label reviewers need to assure labeling compliance

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Food Labeling Compliance Review
James L. Summers , and Elizabeth J. Campbell
Manufacturer: Blackwell Publishing Limited
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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Tanita BC533 Glass Innerscan Body Composition Monitor

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Book Description

Consultant and long-time Food and Drug Administration (FDA) food labeling expert James Summers answers the many questions surrounding FDA food labeling regulations and compliance in Food Labeling Compliance Review. Now in its third edition, the manual is a comprehensive food labeling compliance handbook designed to aid in understanding the requirements of the FDA. This reference is a must-have for regulatory officials, industry personnel, and others responsible for assuring that the label and labeling of domestic and imported food products in interstate commerce comply with the requirements of the Federal Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act, as amended.Available in book or searchable CD-ROM formats, the text is composed of three essential parts:1.) Introduction and how-to information, including the outline of a compliance review.2.) Compliance step-by-step review procedure (in the form of questions and answers) for the food label reviewer to establish the degree to which a product 's label complies with applicable laws and regulations. These sections also provide a basis for developing a label for prospective food products, as well as a foundation for responding to label deviations observed during the review.3.) Guidance and information for decision making such as ready references, charts, illustrations, regulations, Federal Register indexes and tables of content for related publications.Clearly illustrated with dozens of charts, sample label panels and "Nutrition Facts " boxes, Food Labeling Compliance Review is the practical, no-nonsense tool needed by both the experienced and inexperienced food label reviewer.About the Author: James L. Summers is a senior consultant at AAC Consulting Group, Inc. (Rockville, MD), a firm providing consulting services in food, dietary supplement, cosmetics and other areas which fall under the jurisdiction of FDA. He has been offering expert labeling and compliance advice to AAC clients since he ended his 32-year tenure at FDA. He has held positions as Aquatic Sampling Specialist, Supervisory Microbiologist, Public Health Sanitarian, General Biologist, FDA Inspector, Regional Shellfish Specialist, and Consumer Safety Officer (in the Division of Regulatory Guidance). In his last position at FDA, he served as Supervisory Consumer Safety Officer, Branch Chief in the Office of Food Labeling. There he was the focal point for handling the most controversial, complex, and precedent-setting problems involving regulatory compliance issues dealing with food labeling. He participated in the development of policies and regulatory strategies regarding the enforcement of NLEA and other food labeling regulations.Contributor: Elizabeth J. (Betty) Campbell joined AAC after a 35-year career with the FDA where she served as Director of Programs and Enforcement Policy in the Office of Food Labeling in the Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition, and as Acting Director of the Office of Food Labeling. Ms. Campbell played a key role in writing the Nutrition Labeling and Education Act (NLEA) regulations in the early 1990s, and then had major responsibility for implementing those regulations.

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A detailed overview of the rich history of Idaho's St. Joe River, called "Our gentle river" by the local tribe. From the harsh life carved out of the wilderness by settlers, explorers, and miners, to the homesteading, mining and logging booms, and taming by the railroads, and on to today's forestry, conservation, and preservation of wildlife, this well-illustrated book brings past and present to life for the general reader or researcher.

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Considering spending seven months of your life in a grueling endeavour?

For the dreamer

Excellent book

Great overview of the three trails

Awesome!

Hiking the Triple Crown : Appalachian Trail - Pacific Crest Trail - Continental Divide Trail - How to Hike America's Longest Trails
Karen Berger
Manufacturer: Mountaineers Books
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 0898867606

Book Description

Karen Berger also wrote our best-selling title Everyday Wisdom. It has sold over 27,000 copies
An expertly written resource for all long-distance hikers
Appeals to hikers and section hikers alike
Sidebars offer advice and helpful hints from other thru-hikers and suggestions for shorter backpacking trips
The book is easy to read and accessible. The sections are broken down so you only have to read what pertains to you. And then refer back to it whenever you need additional information or when you prepare for your next hike
Section One is about the basics of thru-hiking, Section Two, Three and Four are devoted to the individual trails and contains information specific to each trail
Inspiring, encouraging and detailed. All the advice and information comes from a person who knows

The Appalachian Tail, Pacific Crest Trail and Continental Divide Trail-the so-called Triple Crown Trails—have captured the imaginations of thru-hikers and backpackers alike. For anyone dreaming of or planning a thru-hiking or long-distance hiking endeavor, Hiking the Triple Crown is an indisputable must-have resource. Focusing on the triple crown, author/triple-crown hiker Karen Berger covers everything one needs to know about long-distance hiking.

Starting with the easiest and the oldest-the Appalachian Trail-and graduating to the more variable Pacific Crest Trail and the more difficult Continental Divide Trail, Berger walks the reader through the unique landscapes, trail characteristics, challenges and strategies, exploring issues that fascinate and perplex hungry-information thru-hikers. She covers the logistics of how to hike these trails, skill requirements, seasonal factors, navigation and route finding, gear, weight issues, food, re-supplying, mileage, safety, technique, etiquette, tips and more.

Customer Reviews:

Considering spending seven months of your life in a grueling endeavour?.......2007-09-12

Read this book first. For one thing, someone considering a thru hike of one of the three major north/south trails of America has to decide which one, or at least which one first. This book provides a general overview of the those three trails, but in itself will not be sufficient to plan any of them. That's not a fatal flaw in that when you actually get ready to plan a specific trip, you would want to buy a single book dedicated to that hike that you could carry with you the whole of the trip.

Really, my only criticism of it is that I wish it had more photos. Most of those that are in here are grainy black and whites that just don't do justice to their subject matter. I would have paid double for something a little more photo journalistic.

For the dreamer.......2003-08-04

Excellent book for anyone planning a long distance hike or for anyone who dreams of adventure. Provides great background information of all three trails. A must read.

Excellent book.......2002-11-05

For those of us out there who dream of tackling one (or all!) of the triple crown trails, this book is an awesome resource. Karen Berger is realistic and frank yet encouraging in her advice to long-distance hikers.

Berger's love of these magnificent trails is what makes this book--klike her other books, especially "Where the Waters Divide"-- shine; she obviously has a profound respect for these national treasures and realizes the importance of making others aware of them as well. It's easy to read, has some great photos, and offers shorter hikes to those less inclined to set off on a 6-month thru-hike. The book is useful as both a general hiking reference tool as well as in the planning stages, especially for the At and the PCT; it is also useful for those who wish to do shorter hikes on any of the triple crowns.

Great overview of the three trails.......2002-01-01

This is a fine overview of the three major hiking trails that criss-cross the United States. The major focus of the book is on the renowned Appalachian trail, with most of the text devoted to the AT. The Pacific Crest Trail has some useful information, though the chapters on this trail are shorter and less detailed. The Continental Divide Trail is given more sparse coverage, because the trail is not yet completed and is not attempted by very many hikers, except the very bravest souls.

This book is recommended for people who are not in the immediate stages of planning a thru hike. If you're planning on tackling any of these trails, specific books on each individual trail is the way to go. There is too much general information here for those seriously considering a hike in the near future. This book is fine as an overview and to give you a sample feel of each hike, but is less successful for one planning a hike in the coming year.

The writing is excellent and the book is riveting in sections. For all those obsessed with hiking any of the grand thru trails in America, this is an excellent and recommended resource.

Awesome!.......2001-05-25

"Hiking the Triple Crown" is an awesome volume. If you're not familiar with any of America's three great Wilderness trails, this is a head-first dive into refreshing waters.

Even those who consider themselves pseudo-expert hikers, well-read on these thru-hikes (like myself), will find delightful insights when seeing them presented back-to-back-to-back like this. For example, many PCT- and CDT-hikers tend to refer to the Appalachian Trail as "that wussy trail back East" because of its shorter mileage, lower elevation, and the fact that you really don't need a map because of crowds and blazed markings. However, she explains that the AT is actually the most difficult of the three when it comes to frequent steep climbs and rocky footpaths. Having only hiked sections of the PCT and CDT myself, I never knew that. Ground-leveling comparisons like that (no pun intended) abound through the text.

Being one of the few people ever to have finished the whole Triple Crown, Karen brings great perspective to the nature of America's greatest trails that few can claim to have. A fantastic book for anyone interested in ANY of these trails.

Book Description

A convenient reference for writers, students, and businesspeople; anyone who needs the right word at the right time.

Customer Reviews:

Great beginner to intermediate dichonary.......2007-09-26

The cover of this dictionary is made of sturdy plastic and is well bound. This dictionary will never fall apart. Looking up words in romaji is simple. It has Jouyou look up tables to make finding words in kanji easy, it helps if you can count strokes in kanji to look them up but it's not necessary. Each English entry has commonly used phrases for that word i.e. "knock-out, nokku-auto suru; (of medicine) gussuri nemuraseru; (power lines) hakai suru" also with the appropriate kanji, hiragana or katakana in addition to the romanji in both the Japanese to English and English to Japanese sections. My brother bought the webster dictionary and it's terrible it's falling apart and there are dozens of common words it's missing just like the reviews on this site say.

Terrific!!!.......2007-09-10

I am a self-study student of Japanese. This is my second J-E dictionary as my previous one was wholly inadequate. This one is a gem. I participate in a Japanese blog and the native speakers all commented on my heavy use of old Japanese. Imagine the compliments I received after I made the switch to this dictionary! I highly recommend it.

can't think of a way to improve this!.......2007-08-28

I have both this and the Korean dictionary and both deserve very high praises!

It's perfect to tuck away into a travel bag: the size is nice and small and it has an outer cover that's made of a flexible plastic material so it can bend easily.

The new addition is that the words are now in blue (vs the older dictionary which has them in black).

I would highly recommend the Langenscheidt's Japanese or Korean dictionary for anyone studying the languages or for those who want a quick reference while traveling!

THE BEST POCKET DICTIONARY.......2007-02-23

LANGENSCHEIDT ROCKS

This is a wonderful dictionary, perfect for a westerner.
I also own Chinese, and it is as easy to use as this one.
This japanese version comes with blue headwords, makes it even faster to look up and use.

this little guy is built to last and even get under the rain! love my langenscheidt.

A MUST BUY

First Dictionary.......2006-03-26

Hi Guys !
Well to be honest this is my first dictionary of english-japanese, japanese-english and i found it that it is very helpful, and easy to use, and it's size is excellent, at least for me. I reccomend it for people like me, that is starting to learn japanese.

Langenscheidt's Pocket Japanese Dictionary: Japanese-English English-Japanese (Pocket Dictionary)

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Great Book for Quick Reference

Langenscheidt's Pocket Japanese Dictionary: Japanese-English English-Japanese (Pocket Dictionary)
Seigo Nakao
Manufacturer: Langenscheidt Pub Inc
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

English (All) | Dictionaries & Thesauruses | Reference | Subjects | Books

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General | Reference | Subjects | Books
ASIN: 0887291716

Customer Reviews:

Great Book for Quick Reference.......1999-07-21

The book is very handy for day to day usage. It has a great up to date listing of words. Every word is given in both romaji and Kanji (plus Hiragana and Katakana when necessary) form of the words with both English-Japanese, Japanese-English handy listings. But I found it difficult to find some words we learned in Japanese language. Overall a great quick reference dictionary.

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